Her Derby-bound stablemate Volkstok'n'barrell might similarly be the class act of the Avondale Guineas, although this time he has to handle for the first time the talent of Mongolian Khan, stylish winner of four of his five starts.
Despite winning five of his six starts, we don't yet know just how good Volkstok'n'barrell is, although almost the same thing can be said of Mongolian Khan. By 4pm today we are going to know exactly how good each of them is and Derby favouritism will have a ring of finality about it. This race alone is going to be worth the price of admission.
Some of the support races are not easy. Race 1, the 1600m maiden, has plenty of chances. One certainty of the race is that Hussler Heights (No11) is going to appreciate the step up to the 1600m. He made ground steadily if not brilliantly from the 250m over 1400m at Te Rapa last start and should finish this off even better. Galaktika (No5) was asked to sprint from a long way out last start and he was wilting slightly at the 100m. This field is a bit easier.
After a stunning Thames winning debut, Mabeel (No2, R2) was subsequently narrowly beaten under Hugh Bowman on this track. There was nothing wrong with the effort and he was bound to have learned a fair bit from the experience. Opie Bosson climbs into the saddle and Mabeel's talents will take him close to his second victory. Purcentage (No4) has run against some strong fields in her brief career and from the rails draw is well up to playing a major role here.
Close Up (No4, R3) is hugely underrated. His two Ellerslie wins in December were not only against strong fields, they were accomplished with driving finishes. The No 1 barrier might not always be ideal for a horse with his style of racing, but the small field may help to overcome that.
Fresh from a break, Angelica Hall (No6) can run a big race. She had a recent barrier trial at Cambridge in which she finished third to Atlante.
Race 4 is not easy, but Poetical's (No12) unlucky run at Te Rapa two weeks ago puts her right in contention here.
She was blocked for room last start and won easily at Tauranga the time before that. Zaperb (No3) looked home at Te Rapa last start and was grabbed in the last bound.
Race 7, over 2100m, is so even it will pay to look for some value.
Kaharau (No8) is one of those. He has yet to run past 1600m, but is a very relaxed horse and looks to have a future as a stayer.
The last two races - and the $100,000 Go Racing Avondale Cup is one of them - are difficult.
Show The World (No6, R8) is entitled to start favourite in the Avondale Cup after his Te Rapa win last start, but that effort fell just short of the 'wow' factor. It was okay and the promising stayer deserves the benefit of the doubt here. This will decide Auckland Cup favouritism.
The wildcard is Pondarosa Miss (No7), a hugely talented mare who has had her problems. She was not at all suited by the weight-for-age conditions behind Soriana on the first day of the meeting last week, but she looked fine getting home strongly into sixth late in the race.
On that effort, the step to 2400m should suit. Candle In The Wind (No3) and southerner She's Insatiable (No8) are musts for multiple bettors.
Good luck if you need the last to get you out of trouble - you'll need it. Talented Kirky (No3, R9) has done nothing wrong in four starts and deserves to be favourite.
Loyalty to a group one-winning mount won out as Matamata jockey Michael Coleman made the hardest decision of his season ahead of today's group two Essilor New Zealand Avondale Guineas at Ellerslie.
Coleman was faced with the choice between two talented 3-year-olds for the Guineas - Gaultier and Sound Proposition, both of whom he had won aboard.
But while the Lance O'Sullivan and Andrew Scott-trained Savabeel gelding Sound Proposition had provided him with wins at his last two rides, Coleman plumped for the Danica Guy-trained Rios gelding Gaultier, on whom he had won last month's group one Levin Classic at Trentham.
"It wasn't easy," Coleman said of his choice. "Sound Proposition won pretty impressively at Auckland and he was getting better with each run but I just found it hard to get off a group one winner and he had a few excuses at Te Rapa last time. In the end it came down to winning a group one race on Gaultier, so I've stuck with him."
Gaultier had placed just once in his first four starts and was gelded before producing a remarkable form reversal to win the Levin Classic as a rank outsider with Coleman aboard.
He has had just one start since when finishing 11th of 14 in the group two Waikato Guineas at Te Rapa last month, when Coleman had no options but to tuck back from an outside draw in a race run to favour those on the pace.
"We just got too far back at Te Rapa and I made a mistake by going wide on the bend to make my run," Coleman said. "If I'd stayed in and ridden for luck, he probably would have finished about seventh and I would have been satisfied with that." TAB bookmakers opened Gaultier at $18 for the Avondale Guineas, with Sound Proposition rated a $9 chance in a market headed by Volkstok'n'barrell at $2.80, Mongolian Khan at $4.60 and McQueen at $7.
Coleman has six rides at Ellerslie today, also picking up the ride on last year's Wellington Cup winner Graphic for the group two Go Racing Syndications Avondale Gold Cup.
"He just seemed to battle a bit in the Wellington Cup last time but his previous form was good and I'm looking forward to riding him," Coleman said.
- Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
