KEY POINTS:
One question.
That is all you have to ask yourself before you attack tonight's $400,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Trotting Cup at Alexandra Park.
Don't waste time trying to work out who the best horse is, or who has had the right preparation.
Forget about the gate speed factors
for once, or who would be best suited by a fast pace or a dawdle.
Before you lay down your hard-earned cash tonight ask yourself only this:
Is reinsman Anthony Butt cunning/daring/talented or just plain lucky enough to get Flashing Red away from the markers?
If you think the answer is yes there is only one horse you can back tonight.
That may be the simple formula to tonight's 2700m mobile even though it brings together the most talented field of the New Zealand season.
For all the gate speed of Winforu, the power pacing of Pay Me Christian, the dazzling sprint of Monkey King or the sheer determination of Sly Flyin, Flashing Red should win if he can avoid being locked away on the markers.
The reason is simple. He is too tough.
Yes, at 9-years-old he is old.
And yes, compared with the trio of exciting 4-year-olds in tonight's classic, he is relatively slow.
So there is only one way he will beat them.
He will bludgeon them with his willpower.
That willpower saw him thrash his New Zealand Cup opponents back in November, just weeks after outstaying Mainland Banner in a record-smashing Ashburton Flying Stakes.
Over 2200m tonight's race would be a lottery because the glamour hares would outdazzle the tortoise that is Flashing Red.
Yet over 2700m mobile, he will sap their strength and fill their muscles with lactic acid. He will suffocate their speed.
But, to do that, first he has to get off the marker pegs from barrier one.
There is some hope he could hold the lead but I wouldn't bet on that, especially with three very fast beginners on the front line.
So somewhere inside the first 500m Butt is going to have to ease into a gap, push away from the markers and set himself for the assault, an assault that will almost certainly see Flashing Red end up in front.
So will Butt find that moment, that gap?
"I think so, I think we will be fine," he says in an unusually cautious mood.
"He might even be able to hold them at the start but what I am thinking is if they go so hard at the start they cross me then I am sure the gaps will come.
"So I am not letting the draw bother me too much."
And if Flashing Red does get off?
"Then he is the one to beat. He is thriving on the hard racing and he will love the 2700m."
Butt is being conservative, perhaps mindful of the fact he has spent a lot of time in the stipe's room this season and even more time suspended.
What he really wants to tell you, what he dare not tell you, is that he is certain Flashing Red will get off the markers because he will make sure he does.
And then he will go to the front and may the gods of racing help anybody who gets in his way.
"If anybody tries to hold us out then they won't win the race, that is certain," says Butt.
"I am not being smart in saying that.
"The bottom line is I have to drive him hard so he may not win sitting parked but the leader definitely won't."
If Flashing Red gets locked away the race contains many horses capable of taking advantage, with almost the entire field good enough to win.
But I wouldn't bet on that happening. I'd bet on Butt.
Trotting Cup
* Flashing Red is the favourite for tonight's $400,000 Auckland Trotting Cup.
* He faces a potentially tricky barrier draw.
* His driver Anthony Butt is confident he can work his way to the lead.
* Tonight's support card also contains glamour horses Allegro Agitato and One Dream.
