By MIKE DILLON
Jim Collett has been watching videos of races from Singapore's magical new Kranji track and says it's definitely favouring horses racing off the pace.
And he knows that's going to suit his mount Rebel in the $S3 million ($3.7 million) Singapore Airlines International Cup on March 4.
What he also knows is that for the same reasons Rebel is unlikely to be suited in tomorrow's $100,000 Whakanui Stud International Stakes at Te Rapa.
But Collett is not prepared to change Rebel's back-running tactics, even though he's aware horses racing back in the field may be unsuited by a lack of pace in the group one feature.
It's not just the thought of confusing Rebel and undermining his chances in Singapore that is behind Collett's reluctance to reverse the usual tactics, he says they wouldn't work.
"Regardless of where he is drawn, every time he has been ridden handy he hasn't run on at the finish," said Collett yesterday.
Collett is well aware there is not a natural pacemaker in tomorrow's race and is worried about a sit-and-sprint, which will not suit Rebel's storming finish.
"The only horse I can see leading is Glendara and when he led in the Counties Cup it was a walk and a sprint home from the corner. It was a shocking race."
Collett says the harder the pace, the better Rebel will finish off his races.
"Even if this race is a walk it will be a matter of timing his run properly and getting the gaps."
A sit-and-sprint would suit arch rival Aerosmith much better. He can race a bit handier and can sprint quickly in the final stages.
Even though Rebel clearly outfinished Aerosmith in the JRA Classic at Ellerslie on January 3, Collett was impressed by Aerosmith's winning run at Trentham last start.
"He could have improved a bit since Ellerslie and might be tougher to get past this time.
"At some point of the race Rebel should be giving Aerosmith four or five lengths start."
Surface looked to be on his way back to his brilliant best when a luckless third behind Pace Invader in the Thorndon Mile at Trentham last start.
He has one unplaced 2000m performance in his CV, but is starting to look like a horse who will cope with the middle distance.
Melora, Rijeka and Oregon Power allow for plenty of upset chances somewhere in the trifecta.
When you've got a New Zealand record of 10 wins from 12 starts at 1400m, you're going to start favourite, even at group one level.
Hero will be at short odds for the $100,000 Waikato Draught Sprint tomorrow and deservingly so.
The highly talented, highly volatile speedster looked fabulous winning at 1400m at Otaki and Awapuni but last start failed to see out the 2000m when setting up the pace in Rebel's JRA Classic at Ellerslie on a day when leaders were totally unsuited.
This race is more like Hero's niche.
Centre Crest and O'Malleys Boy are also 1400m specialists. O'Malleys Boy's latest efforts were a lot better than they read and he could be the danger.
Forget Lotto tomorrow night. If you want a real chance at a prize take a $20 bet at Te Rapa and put yourself in to win a possible million dollars in the "Appeal of Zabeel" promotion.
The odds will be 395,739 times better than Lotto.
Racing: Rebel to run his natural style
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