KEY POINTS:
The New Zealand Trotting Cup market became murkier yesterday without a lead-up race even being run.
Shock favourite Auckland Reactor took another step closer to earning his place in the $1.2 million classic on November 11 when he won his second comeback trial at Addington.
But the horses
who had dominated the Cup market before Auckland Reactor entered the frame both suffered slight setbacks before their next lead-up race.
Changeover and Monkey King were set to dominate Cup betting until it became public knowledge Auckland Reactor could sneak into the Cup if his campaign goes to plan in the next two weeks.
Now any serious punter wouldn't consider betting into the fixed-odds market because nobody really knows if the best pacer in the country is going to be there or not.
And to make matters more confusing, both Changeover and Monkey King will start from the second line in Monday's $75,000 Ashburton Flying Stakes.
Monkey King always had to draw there because he is unruly but the massive field means he will need a miracle to win.
And Changeover's connections may have to revisit how they approach the race after he drew second from the outside of the second line.
If Changeover had gone to Ashburton, stepped to the lead and won he would have been the clear second favourite for the New Zealand Cup and the one to beat if the Auckland Reactor challenge falls short.
Now he could well finish out of the money at Ashburton, drift to around $5 for the Cup and punters would be left with a vastly different market than the one they saw 10 days ago.
The one thing certain after yesterday's events is that Auckland Reactor's trainer Mark Purdon is happy with his star - but not his standing start manners.
Auckland Reactor galloped away for the second time in as many trials before racing clear of vastly inferior opponents.
He covered the 2600m, off a 30m handicap, in a sedate 3:26.2, although he was able to power over his last 1600m in 1:57.5, the final 800m in 57.5.
"It was a good run and about as fast as I wanted to go," said Purdon. "But I'd like him to step away better."
Purdon says he will wait until Auckland Reactor resumes in a six-win race at Ashburton on Monday before confirming he will start in the Kaikoura Cup a week later.
More and more it is looking like he will need to win that race to convince Purdon and his connections to make the $12,500 late payment into the Cup.
They have until November 4 - a week out from the big race - to make the payment.
While some punters are warming to the $2.50 price in the fixed-odds market, he still needs to win two races before he is nominated.
So if, even conservatively, you expect him to pay $1.15 on Monday and $1.60 should he win the Kaikoura Cup, and then at least $2 in the New Zealand Cup, backing him to win all three races would return at least $3.68 for every $1 invested.
Anyone taking $2.50 for the Cup needs to learn basic mathematics.
His reappearance at Ashburton on Monday, his first race since a mystery illness in May, will overshadow two other great races.
The Flying Stakes sees Tribute, Baileys Dream, Ohoka Rebel and Waipawa Lad up against Changeover and Monkey King.
Trotters' Flying Mile favourite Stig faces a second line draw against Mountbatten and dual Harness Jewels winner Springbank Richard.
NEXT STEP
* Auckland Reactor won his second trial of his new campaign at Addington.
* But his New Zealand Cup bid still depends on winning both his two starts in the next fortnight.
* That leaves the Cup market in confusion.
