Punting takes on a different texture for much of June and July.
Gone are the good things from the top drawer of talent, to be replaced by horses who might manage a wet track this week and be completely undone by even slightly different soft or heavy footing next start.
All's Well is not one of them. He is rare for two reasons - he is much better than your average winter galloper and it seems there is no type of footing that undermines that ability.
Which leads you to believe he is the best bet at Ellerslie this afternoon. He is weighted up after his terrific victory at Ellerslie two weeks ago, but that was pretty easy and it's difficult to make a strong case for one to turn that result around.
The others appear to be even chances against All's Well in Race 9, the open handicap. Ben Sparta (No1), Something Majic (No4) and Bank Note (No7) are strong trifecta chances. If rain develops this afternoon it will loosen the Ellerslie surface and that will promote the chances of Something Majic.
Tuscaloosa (No1, R8) is due to quit maidens. He looked about to do it at Te Rapa last start until Marsanne came on the scene at the 200m. That was a good effort by Marsanne and there does not appear to be one of her class in this race. Tuscaloosa races on the speed and should get the perfect sit behind the leaders from the No 4 draw.
Boulevardofdreams (No10, R1) did extremely well to finish third on this track two weeks ago. The footing was much heavier than she prefers and the slightly better conditions should help. So will what appears to be a field fairly light on talent.
Race 2 is not a lot better. Skiving (No10) has been running solid races in moderate company and you at least know she will be fit and hard.
You have to wonder if the track will be heavy enough for Explode Away (No4, R3). Remarkably, he has yet to even fill a place in 10 starts on firm, easy or soft footing, but has an excellent record in the heavy stuff. Rain on the day would be a big help. Mark Dean (No3) has won three of his four Ellerslie appearances and races well when a bit on the fresh side.
Race 4 is tricky, but Diwali (No4) comes into the race with a real upset chance. He has not raced since January, but goes well when fresh and is a winner on the course. Watch for Warriors Monty Beatham, Ivan Cleary, Awen Guttenbiel, Stacey Jones, Tony Kemp, among others to be a danger with their runner Miss Monk (No11).
Two-year-old races at this time of year can be notoriously fickle. You generally get a big percentage of youngsters with little experience and still learning their trade. Race 5 is exactly that make-up. Rebel County (No5) showed enough with a clear-cut Matamata barrier trials win nearly three weeks ago to suggest he could make a dashing debut. You had to like the way Dawdy (No1) finished off to win at Te Awamutu. He looks a determined little racehorse and might have too much fitness and grunt for these.
Expectalite (No2, R6) let the side down badly when 14 lengths away as favourite here two weeks ago. It might pay to forget that effort as, generally, he is reliable once he strikes form - and judge him here on his good third to Single Sun the start before. The very testing track late in the day may have found him out last time.
Travis (No2, R10) is a horse on the way through. His Avondale winning debut performance was excellent and the follow-up fifth here behind Danz Star was not hopeless. With the benefit of that experience he can be more competitive here. Dead Rabbits (No1) has not been out of the money in six starts on rain-affected footing and rates highly and Ocean Rules (No8) should not be left out of multiple bets.
Racing: Rare find among winter gallopers
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