Te Rapa winner Natuzzi may not be badly inconvenienced by any downpour. Photo / Supplied
It was all guesswork yesterday.
Will they race or will they not race at Ellerslie today?
Even more important, what will the track be like in the light of the heavy predicted rain and, with that guessed at, what to back in case the decision to press ahead with the racing is made at 6.30am?
Well, essentially, we're talking about summer horses racing on presumably a rain-affected track.
One we can rely on to perform off the back of some rain is Ryan Mark in the $200,000 Sistema Railway Stakes. All he has required to return to his brilliant best is some easing in the footing, something that was missing when he finished a below-par third in the Concorde last start. He was clearly feeling the firm track in the second half of the race.
It is almost certainly not going to be a case of happy new year for Cambridge trainer Tony Pike. The outstanding day he looked like having is almost certainly going to be ruined by the prospect of rain.
"It looks ugly, doesn't it," he said yesterday afternoon. Pike has Sacred Star and Allez Eagle in the Railway, but will probably only end up with one.
"If significant rain comes I will probably risk Allez Eagle, who has a bit of form on affected tracks, but if it rains I won't be running Sacred Star."
The significance there is that Sacred Star has been the pre-raceday favourite for some time.
Pike said if the track gets worse than a dead 5 he definitely won't be running Sacred Master, warm favourite and likely winner of the $75,000 Dunstan Feeds Championship Final.
"If they're not going to handle the conditions what's the point in running them. These are all very talented and valuable horses, there are plenty of options coming up for them without risking them."
If the track is significantly affected for the Railway, Te Rapa winner Natuzzi may not be badly inconvenienced. He has a record of five starts on slow footing for three wins and was placed at his only start in the heavy stuff.
Whosyourmaster is another who will be suited by rain. In this race a year ago he came from the tail of the field on the home turn to storm into the finish and be beaten a short head by In Style. He has won three races on slow or heavy tracks.
Neither In Style nor Durham Town has any record on rain-affected tracks.
Rain would make punting a gamble in the $100,000 Mongolian Khan Royal Stakes. Practically all these fillies have had a relatively brief racing career, pretty much all of them without striking rain affected tracks.
Taken on face value, Sofia Rosa is going to take plenty of beating.
She clipped a heel and fell heavily in the Eight Carat Stakes on Boxing Day and apart from some grass burns escaped injury. Her win at Ellerslie two starts back is enough to earn her favouritism again.
Capella looked solid winning the Eight Carat and gives the impression the step up to 2000m might not be a problem. Valley Girl is the improving filly among these 3-year-olds and with three starts now behind her she should be ready for 2000m.
Opie Bosson: Blue Flag - Ellerslie (race four)
Matt Cameron: Scrutinize - Ellerslie (race five)
Sam Collett: Bee Tee Junior - Ellerslie (race four)
Mark Du Plessis: Capella - Ellerslie (race six)
Chris Johnson: Natuzzi - Ellerslie (race nine)
Danielle Johnson: Volts - Ellerslie (race two)
Lee Magorrian: Francis Drake - Ellerslie (race 10)
(Hilarious - 1st)
Johnathon Parkes: Arpeggio - Hastings (race five)
Sam Spratt: Mister Impatience - Ellerslie (race seven)
Lisa Allpress: Cast Up - Tauherenikau (race six)
A half-hour meeting of Auckland Racing Club directors and racing staff from 6am is expected to decide whether today's New Year's Day races will go ahead.
Predicted heavy rain in Auckland today - most predictions are for around 80mm - would see a postponement until Monday.
"If anything like that amount of rain fell during the day it would cause visibility problems for sure," said ARC chief executive Cameron George.
"The last thing we want is for the meeting to start then have to abandon - that would be a disaster for everyone. That's why we are making a call at 6.30am."
All trainers with horses engaged today were yesterday emailed by the club to inform them of the situation.
"Obviously we want to avoid horses from areas like Northland and the Waikato from being transported to Auckland before a decision is made, hence the 6 o'clock meeting," George said.
With Tauranga racing tomorrow and Thames Sunday, Monday was the next available slot for the Ellerslie meeting. Ruakaka race on Tuesday and Rotorua next Friday.
The racing industry in Waikato looks to centralise operations.