Racing: Rain won't affect southern visitor

A wet track won't worry Riccarton mare O'Reilly Rose in the Avondale Cup tomorrow. Photo / Mark Mitchell

But if she's going to be ready for a race like the Auckland Cup, we have to get the racing into her.Trainer Peter Williams You don't expect it this time of year.

Guessing the track conditions, that is, as much as guessing the winner.

That's the scenario for tomorrow's $100,000 West Brook Winery Avondale Cup.

If the weather forecast is accurate we're going to get a wet Avondale Cup.

We had some of the predicted rain yesterday, but in Auckland nowhere near as much as anticipated.

We're apparently in for a good deal of moisture today and tomorrow.

Rain-affected tracks at this time of year are different to winter tracks - so much depends on what happens on the day.

If it rains tomorrow and continues through the programme, that's when the most damage is done. So, pre-empting the conditions, and therefore the result, is dangerous.

One trainer who is unconcerned about the weather is Christchurch's Peter Williams, who co-prepares Southern mare O'Reilly Rose.

The last time O'Reilly Rose struck a really wet track was at Matamata in February this year and she won by 13 lengths.

"She can handle anything," said Williams last night.

What he is concerned about is O'Reilly Rose's tendency to be below her best in the spring and early summer, something not uncommon in mares because of their breeding cycles.

"Her best form has always been after Christmas," said Williams.

"But if she's going to be ready for a race like the Auckland Cup, we have to get the racing into her.

"In her favour for this race is that she's very well and she's travelled up a treat. She's also raced this way around before."

Michael Coleman has the ride on O'Reilly Rose.

No one is more delighted about the prospect of significant rain than Steven Cooper for Spin Around.

The former Hong Kong-based stayer won the 2007 Avondale Cup and followed that up with victory in the $1 million Auckland Cup in March.

Spin Around beat only a couple home in the Melbourne Cup four weeks ago, but has done well since returning to New Zealand a few days later. "He's in great shape and we've been praying for rain," said Cooper.

Spin Around will be ridden by Craig Grylls.

The TAB bookies seem similarly confused about the Cup with their market of $4.20 Boundless, $6 Fiorano, $6.50 Ginga Dude, Sand Hawk; $7.50 Gallions Reach, $11 O'Reilly Rose, $12 Solid Billing, $15 Mirkola Lass, Cross Roads; $18 Spin Around, $21 Gasnier, $31 Calatrava.

Similarly, there is no standout in the $85,000 Aussie Butcher Concorde: $5 Beautiful Girl, $6.50 Jazzella, Walkonby; $7 Pinsoir, $7.50 Irish Colleen, $10 Keepa Cruisin, Bella Valentina; $11 Albercheno, Mallinson Road; $21 Faalcon, $26 Volitant, $31 Anotherhoarse.