Alegrio (left) has good wet form in Leg 4 today. Photo / APN
An easterly band of rain through Tauranga this morning is predicted.
Just what you need when a guaranteed $650,000 - possibly getting to $800,000 - Pick6 is on the card.
If the weather boffins are on the money, it will not take much to send the Tauranga surface to significantly rain-affected.
The rating yesterday morning was a dead 6, coming in from the slow range.
Even persistent showers should see a quick downgrade.
The best scenario is if the weather people are wrong.
If not, here are the horses you have to include in your Pick6.
Leg 1: Miss Sharapova, first pick yesterday, is probably going to be vulnerable if the rain comes. If it's wet, don't leave out Peace Lilly, Arcenciel, Natsinga and Amity Dane. Tough leg, even with the small field.
Leg 2: Local veteran Casual Fibs is the first to consider. He's won three in the slow, four on the course and three at the distance. And he gets a 3kg claim by Alex Forbes. The Original is one from one in heavy, so he has to be considered, along with Cathay Lady and Sateka.
Leg 3: Gospel has a slow track win and although Choiceman won't want the footing too bad, he's too good to risk. White Lies, Acapela and Street Party are real chances.
Leg 4: Alegrio has good wet form and stablemate Shantaine is much fitter for her recent first-up run at Te Rapa. She is also capable with the rain around. Local Cassabella Lane is probably a must.
Leg 5: In 17 starts topweight Shandream has not raced on a rain-affected track. Perhaps that tells us something, perhaps not.
She is a winner at Tauranga though and that is always worth considering. She might be too smart to leave out.
La Bella Signora loves the wet - to the extent of five of her eight wins. Her five-day backup is a touch concerning, but the 4kg allowance will come in handy. Prime Hit is the quick improver (a winner at Tauranga) and Carlotta can manage the conditions if wet.
Pick6s are all about ifs and buts - this one more than most.
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