Wainui Prince is a chance in race 3 at Pukekohe. Photo / APN
This could be any one of a dozen columns from last season.
Will it rain today?
Forecasters say yes, but of course it's the same forecasters who told us to expect four days of rain around last weekend and we didn't see a drop.
When you read this you will pretty much know the answer to that question, but when this was written it was sunblock territory in Auckland yesterday.
Whether it rains will be the difference between eye fillet and supermarket sausages for dinner next week.
Okay, let's take the positive approach and say, for the sake of this column, it will rain at Pukekohe Park for the Counties meeting.
In which case you can start the day with Bach (No1, R1). We handed him out strongly in the last race on the big Pick6 day at Te Rapa two weeks ago, but the track dried throughout the day and the footing was not wet enough for him. He might possibly require the rain to start before the programme kicks off today and if it does he's a solid bet.
Passing Parade (No3, R2) justified some heavy backing when he landed the money at just his second race start at Paeroa last time. This is quite a bit stronger with the likes of Dalveen (No4) engaged. Passing Parade is a big, powerful type who should once again power through tough going. Dalveen was similarly impressive winning at Ruakaka last start, but that was on a decent surface and she broke 1.11 for the 1200m. Mum Calveen was a toff and although she won a couple on slow tracks, all her best form was on top of the ground. How Dalveen copes with a wet track remains to be seen.
Airfield Road (No4, R3) flopped badly when heavily backed in his first start this preparation, but bounced back with a close and strong third in a talented field last start. He faces another pretty useful line-up here, but rates highly. Fluoro Lite (No8) found the Trentham footing just too much last start, but then so did plenty of others that day. Her previous form was excellent and she is more than worth another look. Twilight Dragon (No5) and Wainui Prince (No4) are strong multiple bet chances.
Brompton (No2, R4) may have just officially turned 12, but so far no one has told him. His last-start third was more the effort of a 6-year-old so with the chance of rain today he comes right into this race. All seven of his wins have been in heavy ground. Difficult to know what happened to Bahhton (No4) at New Plymouth, but that effort was well below his best. He is worth another chance and so is Buckles (No5).
Race 5 is the toughest on the programme. One who is a better chance than his form on paper would suggest is Duncan (No5). It might pay to disregard his failure last start.
The rain definitely needs to arrive for Matost (No2, R6), who simply loves those, loose, wet conditions. He handled the tough conditions at Trentham last start and would be even better suited by some rain here today. Despite advancing years and topweight, John Gray (No1) is always difficult to hold out in these sorts of races. Cornelius (No9) has come through the grades quickly, but he has the form on the board.
Rain would definitely assist Beverley Beck (No1, R7). You can forget his last-start eighth at Te Awamutu and the fourth the time before that was a terrific effort. Another run it might pay to forget is Dance's failure at Te Rapa last start. She won well on this track the start before and this is a bit easier than the Te Rapa race.
If the rain "really" arrives, Boy (No9) is a chance of getting into the money in the last. His form looks shocking on paper, but he is very capable in the real wet and the big, long home straight here will suit him.
A return to racing on her home track may be the catalyst for quality mare Sarsarun (No5, R6) to turn her form around at Pukekohe today.
The 7-year-old is a two-time winner on the course and earned black type there last spring when third in the Listed Westbury Classic.
She has been disappointing this preparation and the Professionals Osborne Realty 1400 offers her a chance at redemption.
"Ideally, 1600 metres would be better for her, but with the blinkers on for the first time and a slow track it might bring them back to her," co-trainer Richard Collett said.
Collett has formed a new training partnership this season with Gareth McRae.
The duo also have good prospects in the opening event at Pukekohe with Jesshanimo and Mitzi Mitosis form runners in the Drake Medox 1400.
additional reporting, NZ Racing Desk
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