KEY POINTS:
Every weather forecast you read says rain this morning or today.
If they've been accurate it will dramatically alter the form for Ellerslie and Wanganui today.
The Ellerslie track has all week been hovering around the border of good/dead, but a solid band of rain early today would see that go south pretty quickly.
Rain would put Sable right on top of selections for the $50,000 Cornwall Handicap.
You can make a case that coming from behind on a firmer track than she prefers to be beaten by only one length here last Saturday was as good as a winning run.
A wetter track would bring the leaders back to her more quickly and it will take a smart run to beat her in the right conditions.
A newcomer to this grade in Nordic Dancer is another who will be suited by rain. She stepped up in class for the Rotorua Cup, but a good track there counted against her.
Last week's winner Twinkling is right in it again and watch for Mac Five if the track does not deteriorate.
After being beaten in photo finishes by talented sorts like Jazzella and Zerello in her last two, Electrostatic (No2, R2) deserves a winning turn, but she strikes a couple of tough ones again. Keep The Message (No3) will appreciate the drop from 58kg to 56.5kg, Chartreuse (No4) comes right into it if it rains and Giovanni (No1) gets weight relief from 59kg to 56kg through Sam Collett. Given she seems able to handle all types of tracks, Electrostatic might be the safest each-way prospect.
Pindy (No3, R3) deserves another win after staging a 400m battle with eventual winner Lord Monty at Te Rapa last start and being narrowly beaten. He never looked like giving it away and that form has been made to look even better with Lord Monty going on to win again at Trentham last Saturday.
You couldn't help but rate the finishing effort of Anton (No8) when he flashed home from near last to be narrowly beaten by impressive winner Towzan last time. That was his first run back and he wouldn't have to improve much on it. Del Toro (No2) and Borneo Holiday (No1), who will carry only .5kg more than when winning easily in the same class last week, are obvious trifecta chances.
There are too many variables to make race five, the $50,000 open sprint, a safe betting proposition. It could be a trap race.
Wild Cat (No3, R6) goes up from R76 to R83, but won so stylishly last time that she deserves some consideration. She handled the wet conditions beautifully at Pukekohe, so clearly the rain would aid her chances. The favourite, The Fred Factor, (No2) is unbeaten in rain-affected footing and also on this track. Kenny Starfighter (No7) could be a surprise fresh up in the wet.
A quick change to wet conditions can bring up some upset results and race eight looks a possible vehicle for that. French Crest (No7) and Red Bunting (No2), neither of whom have any form on the board, are very capable in the heavy stuff and can surprise in this field if the conditions are right for them.
Both would be fitter for recent fresh-up performances.
Plenty of chances in race nine and you might see a big trifecta.
On form Jayasuriya (No6) deserves to be favourite, but there might be a question mark if the track got bad. If it is wet, Lionstar (No5), Laughing Girl (No2), Martini Time (No12) and Pace And Grace (No3) are capable of putting in big efforts.
No apprentice claim this time, but Prized Touch (No9, R10) makes appeal in the last. Michael Coleman has the ride and should suit. Prized Touch can really get home strongly on his day and it should take that type to win this late in the day. Dead Rabbits (No11) is a lot better than he showed when beaten favourite at Taranaki last start. Give him another chance.
Bulginbaah (No3, R8) will give them plenty of work to do in the $60,000 AG Challenge Stakes at Wanganui, particularly if the rain arrives there. His latest form on paper looks ordinary, but ignore that.
Earlier, Whodat Cugat (No7, R6) can resume with a maiden victory. Two of her only three starts to date have been in stakes company behind the likes of Imananabaa and Santagostino and has more ability than most maidens.
There are chances everywhere in race seven, but don't leave Aeolian (No12) out of quinellas and trifectas. He was beaten favourite at Trentham last week, but had to cover ground and work mid-race and still finished only 1.5 lengths from the winner in seventh place. This race should suit better.
In Australia two very smart females in Eskimo Queen and Diamond Deck provide New Zealand with a powerful hand in the two features races, the A$400,000 ($450,000) Queensland Oaks and A$250,000 Sires Produce.
On lead-up form, Eskimo Queen is definitely the filly to beat in the Oaks.
