Racing: Rain means a testing Pick6 track

Track conditions and the resulting racing pattern will decide tomorrow's mammoth $1 million Pick6 at New Plymouth.

Yesterday the Taranaki course proper was 5.0 and heavy with a light misty rain preventing any chance of drying.

A front with considerable rain embedded was forecast to sweep over the North Island last night.

The net effect will mean a tough, testing track. And that should see a reverse in the usual on-pace bias on firmer footing on the track.

Back runners will naturally be drawn closer to the lead when the fields swing wide on the home bend as the track cuts up progressively with each race.

Given that scene-setter, here are some thoughts on how each race will be affected.

LEG 1: Coin Collection comes right into calculations after his fighting fifth in a stronger field at Te Rapa last Saturday. He drops from an R83 event to R76 and you need to be aware that the horses that beat him home at Te Rapa, Texas, Vamperalla, Twinkling and Norfolk Prince, would be too good for this line-up.

The only question is that Coin Collection's form appears to favour space between races and he has to back up in a week, with a trip from Taranaki to Waikato thrown in. He still rates highly. Waiknotme and Puahue Magic both hit the line strongly, which is going to be a major factor in each race tomorrow.

Waiknotme is a late-starter with only seven races behind him so he should still be on the improve.

LEG 2: The stats point to St Maria Deleuca. She has either won or been placed in half of her 14 starts on heavy footing, she was a winner at her only start on this track and she is coming off an open company third in a stronger field behind Figurinit.

Worth considering is that on July 6 St Maria Deleuca beat Republican Star on this track by 1.75 lengths but meets that horse 4kg worse off this time. Against that, Republican Star mixes his form compared with the wonderful run the mare has had lately. Both need to be included.

Roger James has not decided whether to run Ocean Storm here or at Ellerslie. The interesting decision he has made is to keep the natural stayer to 1400m, a distance he won over when fresh at Ellerslie last start.

The very testing conditions will offset that, and James says the horse is working with even more dash than before the first-up win.

LEG 3: The track suiting back runners will play towards Kenny Starfighter and Mick Curtis. As good as Mick Curtis is, he has yet to win at 1200m. Offsetting that is the track racing pattern and the fact that he won fresh last campaign.

A 1400m would similarly suit Kenny Starfighter better, but Lance O'Sullivan will have freshened him for this after Riccarton. Tom Tom Cat will have freshened nicely.

LEG 4: If there is a Pick6 anchor, it is Ex Ex Al. Forget his Te Rapa failure last start. This suits him perfectly.

LEG 5: Hautap Honey won in this class at Ellerslie last start and faces an ordinary field. She does not lack grit. This is an even field and one with potential to throw a lot of punters off course.

LEG 6: Local trainer Allan Sharrock holds a strong hand with Sheza Dooley and Karaka Belle.

"Sheza Dooley probably should have won her last two starts and Karaka Belle has won her last two starts nicely - you can't get better form than that," said Sharrock.

Osmeheeps is the big improver.