KEY POINTS:
Local trainer Howie Mathews takes a typically admirable dose of humility into today's $200,000 Levin Classic at Otaki.
Mathews and his wife and training partner Lorraine are excused their high for Dorabella tearing off the $275,000 New Zealand Bloodstock 1000 Guineas at Riccarton last start.
Neither believes that
gives them the right to the group one classic on their back doorstep this afternoon.
"I think my filly has to step to the next level to beat Jokers Wild," said Howie Mathews yesterday.
"I don't mark down Jokers Wild at all for being beaten in the 2000 Guineas - I thought it was a fabulous effort."
All of the above, of course, depends on the Otaki weather today - Mathews' confidence in Dorabella's chance of pulling off back-to-back group ones will increase dramatically if the forecast rain for Otaki today proves to be accurate.
"The track here at the moment would be 2.4, 2.5, but if the rain arrives tomorrow like they say it will, well, then who knows what the footing will be like."
Mathews knows Dorabella can successfully manage at least a slow track, a rating which could see Jokers Wild on his way back home to Matamata by race time.
"It was slow the day she won at Hawera and she had no trouble with it at all."
Any confidence the husband and wife team have in their filly has been tested by seeing Jokers Wild at Otaki this week.
"I've watched him work each morning and, well, he's just a fabulous horse," said Howie Mathews.
"On decent footing you'd expect a horse like him to just clean a race like this up. We'd have to jump up a notch to beat him."
One advantage Dorabella has is racing in her own area for the first time.
"She's never raced less than a three-hour float trip away from home.
"It was three hours to Hastings, three to Hawera, Taupo was overnight and there was Christchurch.
"This time she'll be walking across the road."
Dorabella is a big, gross filly and the stable carefully monitors her weight.
"Although, to be fair, we haven't struck a weight that she's not competitive at.
"Because the trip to Christchurch dropped her weight by 14kg, she was 532kg the day before the 1000 Guineas and she'll walk into the birdcage tomorrow around 546kg.
"The day before she won at Hawera she was 552kg, so she's won at her lowest weight and won at her highest.
"Because she can get gross it's not a bad thing when she drops a little weight like she did at Riccarton."
Dorabella might have looked like a Oaks filly when winning at Riccarton, but Mathews says there is little chance of her being in the classic at Trentham in January.
"We're looking at the Eulogy Stakes here on our doorstep in 16 days time then we'll look at the two nice races at Ellerslie on December 26 and January 1.
"If you run the Oaks it's pretty much the end of a campaign because it's a tough 2400m, but I'd like to think that if she misses the Oaks she could keep going for a little bit after Ellerslie.
"She gets too gross and I can't see myself wanting to give her a decent break after a race like the Oaks."
If the track is decent Mathews knows exactly how the race will pan out.
"Jokers Wild will be in front on the home turn and we'll be chasing him.
"If you're any more than two lengths off him you're no hope of picking him up."
Yesterday Jokers Wild was the $1.90 favourite with Dorabella next best fancied at $7 and Santagostino at $8.
THE ODDS
NZ TAB fixed-odds markets:-
* Levin Classic, $200,000, 3yo, group one, 1600m (run at Otaki tomorrow): $1.90 Jokers Wild; $7 Dorabella; $8 Santagostino; $12 J'Adane; $13 Porotene Gem; $16 Keep The Message; $17 Sands Of Time; $18 Pintsize; $22 Ginella; $35 Elblitzem, Figueres; $40 Flypass; $50 Sitting On A Hill; $60 Fuji Walk; $100 Bellamour.
* Levin Stakes, $50,000, opn hcp, 1400m (run at Otaki tomorrow): $4 Nitty Gritty; $5 Abit Rusty; $5.50 Just Looking; $7 Banchiere; $8 Celtic Rose; $11 Stateswoman; $12 Del Toro; $14 Boxapins; $16 Boycott; $25 Plaything, Arica.
