Tomorrow's $60,000 Manawatu Cup might be easier to win than the red-hot line-up first suggested.
Two of the leading fancies, Upsetthym and Cluden Creek, have had queries put on them by their connections.
Upsetthym's trainer, Karen Fursdon, says the classy mare's No 23 barrier draw presents her with a mountain she may not be able to climb.
And Waverley trainer John Boon is still trying to work out Cluden Creek after a shocker 16th place in last week's Waikato Cup.
Upsetthym will be having her first start since finishing 15th of 24 in Makybe Diva's Melbourne Cup.
Fursdon is delighted with the way the mare has recovered from her Melbourne campaign, but says Upsetthym is the last horse that needs to draw a wide gate.
"In all her races she has shown that her best form is when she has been held up for a late sprint, the Auckland Cup win in January being a great example.
"When she draws wide, as she did in the Melbourne Cup and as she has on Saturday, she has to drop back from the start to avoid covering too much extra ground.
"When you do that, of course, you have to either make a sweeping run around the field, which takes her sprint away, or ride for luck."
Fursdon is aiming Upsetthym for successive Auckland Cups and will instruct rider Vinny Colgan not to scout wide on the home bend.
"The barrier draw in the Melbourne Cup meant she had to go back.
"The rider decided she should get up handy on the home bend and she had nothing left to sprint with.
"At least I'm hoping that was the reason - we'll find out on Saturday."
Boon is guessing about what happened to Cluden Creek last week.
The Wellington Cup winner had the perfect spot trailing the leading group, but dropped out.
"David Walker said he felt off the bit the whole way - he was working to be where he was throughout the race. He was pretty flat."
Boon says there is a slight chance Cluden Creek may not have handled the Te Rapa track.
"I'm not bagging the track - it's very good - but there's always a chance any horse may not manage any particular track.
"I might be clinging to straws, but I have to consider it. When things are not right with this horse he puts in a couple of bad ones.
"He seems to be more relaxed than last year - perhaps he's thinking a bit."
If Boon is satisfied with Cluden Creek tomorrow the horse will progress through to the New Zealand Herald Auckland Cup.
Given the above scenarios, comeback topliner Cent Home might be a chance under his 57kg topweight.
The twice-retired veteran was impressive beating a lesser field than this under the same weight at Awapuni last Saturday.
The stylish feature was the sustained final sprint he showed, which has replaced the blinding acceleration he used to have as a younger horse. Over 2300m a sustained sprint is probably a better option than a short, sharp burst, which can leave a horse vulnerable to a bombing finish.
Trainer Jim Wallace says the old bloke is in great shape.
"I'm not kidding myself he's the horse he used to be, but he's very well and I don't think he's badly handicapped."
It will be Cent Home's first start as far as 2300m.
"He had only one attempt at 2200m and he was beaten in a photo in a Hawkes Bay Cup, so I've got no fears about the distance."
There are plenty of chances. Auckland Cup winner Bodie is having his first start since finishing fourth in the New Zealand Cup, Asgoodas has been racing without luck and Lough Rinn is about to approach his best form.
Manawatu Cup
Upsetthym and Cluden Creek have a couple of things to overcome.
Upsetthym's trainer, Karen Fursdon, is disappointed the mare has drawn wide again.
John Boon is not convinced Cluden Creek is giving his best.
Racing: Queries over cup hopefuls
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