Racing: Queensland form will help My Keepsake at Hastings

Alagant Satin (far left) sprints clear. Photo / Richard Robinson

Mudgway Stakes day generally sees plenty of form turnarounds because a lot of horses that have been racing on "off" tracks suddenly strike good Hastings footing.

That's not going to happen today.

Which means the form should run pretty true.

Apart from the $200,000 Mudgway itself, where horses are in the main starting new campaigns, the winter form should be a sound guide.

It doesn't get much better than My Keepsake's Queensland form - first in the Queensland Oaks, third in the Derby a week later.

Sure, My Keepsake (No10, R5) is coming back from 2400m to 1600m, but in today's testing conditions that will be more like 1700m to 1800m and, anyway, she's nice and fresh.

The 53.5kg is the really attractive part when you consider last year's winner Samurai will go around under 59kg.

Salvatore might be hard to beat. He dropped off them late in the Foxbridge Plate to finish fifth after looking a chance at the 250m, but that was under 58.5kg. He drops to 54.5kg here and doesn't have the likes of Bulginbaah to worry about. We still don't know how good Atom Cat is in the wet. We might find out today.

All In Tempo (No5, R3) is hugely underrated. The 1200m was always going to be too short for him in the Foxbridge Plate, but he was never given a chance after being checked when Irish Colleen flipped at the 800m. With that run behind him he steps to 1400m today, a distance over which he has won. The small field will suit and watch for him steaming home late. Alagant Satin (No2) doesn't have any wet track form behind her, but she trialled pretty well on a slow surface when she won at Te Teko recently and, anyway, she's by Al Akbar and they pretty much all do okay when the rain is around. Spare A Fortune (No1) is going around with his full 59kg, but can still fill a trifecta place.

Yangming (No5, R6) never quite got into the right part of the track when beaten favourite at Te Rapa last start. He still tried right to the finish and should finish a lot closer this time. Tom Sawyer (No8) and Dan Dinero (No9) have drawn wide, but with luck can still play a role.

I Am Sam (No4, R7) was backed for plenty last week, but looked to be struggling on the home bend. He rallied really bravely without looking likely to win and his second was okay without the wow factor. He hadn't raced for a month so perhaps he will be sharper this time. He's certainly good enough to win this if there has been a touch of improvement since last week.

An enormous run for second from Show Up (No10, R8) when resuming at Te Rapa. She doesn't have to improve much on that to be difficult to manage here. It's a good field though and a bit of value might be Abbey Tralae (No4). She looked exceptional on a couple of occasions last season and you can see her going close in this at respectable odds. Justanexcuse (No3) was a fraction disappointing when third as beaten favourite on the final day, but he may have been feeling the effects of his winning run the week before. He might do better here.

The Mudgway is not easy, but Wall Street (No4, R9) remains the horse to beat. He's best at 1600m, but 1400m fresh from a spell is going to be okay. The testing ground is unlikely to affect him adversely.

Provided runners today are able to get purchase on the track to launch their sprints he will be storming at them late. So will Keep The Peace (No15). She is as forward as any of those resuming and provided James McDonald can find her a passage through from her inside barrier she should run part of the trifecta. There are plenty of chances, but perhaps the next best two after this pair are Pennacchio (No13) and The Hombre (No10), both of whom remain a little underrated despite their Brisbane form.

The last is a tough get-out race. Hi Flo (No15, R10) looked very smart in her brief racing as a 3-year-old and is the type to sprint well while fresh. She'll need a little luck from a wide gate, but if she gets it she can win.