Aptly-named Survived will have to overcome a wide barrier at Eagle Farm tomorrow.Picture / APN
Shake the hand of your worst enemy when they win a horse race, because it's bloody hard to do.
Yes, that's an old line, but it will never lose its truth.
Take tomorrow. You have a horse, Survived, who was named because he narrowly cheated death after originally being thought too small to race.
Against the odds he comes through in a very short space of time to be one of the best we have.
One thing missing for a 3-year-old of the highest quality - a Derby.
Tomorrow's A$500,000 Queensland Derby is the last chance and it's possible Survived could be denied that because of the barrier draw.
And who said horse racing isn't mostly about luck.
Barrier No 17 - 14 when the emergencies come out - is not instant death, but it can be.
Fortunately, Survived has a smart jockey in Jonathan Riddell, whose time as a canny jumps rider has taught him to make his own luck.
Riddell will need to do that like never before to manufacture the passage that will take Survived to victory for New Zealand.
It's not difficult to make a case that Survived - winner of five of his eight starts - is the best horse in the Derby line-up.
Riddell made one of his rare blunders when he chose to head back in behind horses on the home bend in the lead-up Rough Habit Plate, rather that stay wide on the track.
It cost him the race.
With an even break tomorrow he can reverse the placings that day on the horse that beat him, Hawkspur. Unfortunately Hawkspur has drawn ideally at No 5, which will allow Jim Cassidy a number of options, certainly better ones than Riddell will be faced with.
Hastings trainer John Bary is delighted with the three-week gap between the Rough Habit and the Derby.
Hawkspur, meantime, had a further start and won the Grand Prix the week after the Rough Habit.
Quintessential can become the queen of Queensland tomorrow.
The Matamata mare was almost that 12 months ago when she won the Queensland Oaks and finished second in the Derby.
This time around, John Sargent's mercurial mare has won the Chairman's Handicap (2100m) and the 2200m Eagle Farm Cup.
To make it a treble with tomorrow's A$300,000 Brisbane Cup will make her the talking point.
"Very happy with the way she's gone forward," said Sargent when he left to head back to Queensland.
To win over 2400m under 57.5kg is never easy for a mare, but balancing that is the fact this is not a strong field.
Precedence looked the potential Brisbane Cup winner when he powered home to take the Premier's Cup last start, but everyone had been waiting for more than two years for him to do that.
Unless he's changed his ways, two of those efforts in a row would surprise.
Moriarty for Chris Waller might be a better chance.
He looked good winning in Sydney then got home nicely to be a neat length behind Quintessential in fourth place in the Eagle Farm Cup.
Shaune Ritchie has Zurella and Artistic engaged in the Cup and New Zealand will also be represented by Zennista, Savanah Rush and the emergency Gold Cape.
At Te Rapa tomorrow Alegrio faces a task under 60kg topweight in the only open race on the programme, the Norris Ward McKinnon 1400.
Queensland Derby
-Survived has the form on the board, but an unfortunate barrier draw.
-The New Zealand stayer will need to use up all his luck to win.
-Arch rival Hawkspur has drawn ideally for Jim Cassidy.
Blake Shinn looks set to have a huge impact on Ellerslie’s glamour meetings.