Kiwi 3-year-old has to win at Doomben tomorrow or face a different programme
The Hombre is labelled urgent in tomorrow's A$125,000 Rough Habit Plate at Doomben.
A win would be lovely, but even more critical is sufficient stakemoney to guarantee him a start in the Queensland Derby on June 12.
In terms of stakemoney earned, The Hombre is behind more than are behind him in terms of likely runners for the Derby.
A win tomorrow, on his Australian debut, would guarantee a place in the Derby line-up and probably so would second, the fish hook being that unlike The Hombre, these horses will be running again before the Derby and therefore have the opportunity to leapfrog the New Zealander in dollar terms.
Trainer John Bary has declared a desire not to run The Hombre again before the 2400m Derby, but wise heads are likely to try to turn that decision around.
As a former professional polo player at the highest international level, Bary is well aware how to travel a horse on an aircraft.
Perhaps he is slightly less aware how well thoroughbreds can do physically on their first racing trip to a Queensland winter carnival.
Like most of us, racehorses start eating more in the warmth of Queensland and trainers have to adjust either the work rate or the racing schedule to fit that.
There is a month between tomorrow's race and the Derby, a long stretch to accommodate a 2400m group one race.
New Plymouth trainer John Wheeler is stabled alongside John Bary and The Hombre in Brisbane and those who know Wheeler's approach to such things will be betting on what advice will be coming John Bary's way after tomorrow's race, provided the Hawkes Bay 3-year-old's form justifies it.
The Hombre pretty much fits the profile of every horse in the market for the Queensland Derby - horses who have looked good and are about to, or not - make the next step to the top grade. As a result, the Derby betting market is tentative at best and will change dramatically after tomorrow's race.
The only one high up in the Derby market running in the Rough Habit is the Tim Martin-trained Blueys Way, who was put aside after winning at Canterbury in January with this race in mind.
He has subsequently won over 1550m and 1900m at Canterbury and is quoted at $9 for the Derby.
Melbourne trainer Peter Moody has a very good opinion of one of his two runners tomorrow, Tee Emar.
Racing: Qld Derby start at stake for Hombre
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