"It is 1950m and from the draw Laz should lead and win," says Purdon.
"He has come back from the Miracle Mile well and he is ready to go.
"I think we all know Heaven Rocks is very good and if he behaves himself and sits parked outside Laz then he will make him work but I doubt he will get past him.
"He is good enough to beat Laz one day under the right circumstances but I'd be surprised if it was this week." That makes the $1.20 for Lazarus a decent multi anchor on a night when most of the feature races have a two-horse war look to them.
The Purdon pair of Ultimate Machete and Vincent dominate the Flying Stakes and while Ultimate Machete has opened favourite because he has the better draw, he has never shown great gate speed.
"It [gate speed] will be there if he needs it and I think he can find the front," suggests Purdon. "There really is nothing between them but the draw makes me favour Ultimate Machete a bit.
"If Vincent can sit parked outside him and beat him then he might simply be better at the moment.
"But I can't split them on ability so I think this race and the Derby next week could be decided by the draws."
The night's most lucrative two-horse war will be between Piccadilly Princess and The Orange Agent in the $100,000 Breeders Stakes, even though the bookies have thrown Golden Goddess in the market as a big hope.
"She has been away from the races for a long time and I'd be surprised if she could beat these other two fresh up over 2600m," said Purdon of Golden Goddess.
That leaves two wonderful, in-form mares with Piccadilly Princess having the better draw.
"From barrier two we have to try and lead and stay in front of The Orange Agent, that is our best chance of winning," says Purdon.
"My mare has come back from Australia in great shape and is at her peak. I was very happy how she trialled against Waikiki Beach on Monday."
But while The Orange Agent has drawn wide she is an outstanding mare who came from behind Smolda to beat him last start and she might simply be a better horse than Piccadilly Princess.
The question is by how much? If The Orange Agent blasts to the lead early it is her race to lose. If she has to sit parked and cover an extra two to four lengths than Piccadilly Princess it becomes a great match race.
Premier punting
Best: Ultimate Machete (Addington, R8, No3): If he stays in front of Vincent should get some revenge.
Draw beater: Chevron Express (R4, No13): Has been in better fields than this and could get good run through.
Multi anchor: Lazarus (R5, No1): The $1.20 actually decent value for the champ.
