Don't try convincing Barry Purdon any pacer good enough to run fourth in the New Zealand Cup should be a certainty in tonight's Spring Cup at Alexandra Park.
Because the training great has been around too long to fall for that.
Purdon re-produces his stable pacing star Pembrook Benny in the $15,000 Spring Cup, which has changed conditions to be a mobile this season.
Considering Pembrook Benny ran fourth in the New Zealand Cup, fifth in the Hunter Cup and won the Kumeu Founders Cup last season, he looks a handicapping certainty tonight.
But Purdon knows it's not quite that simple fresh-up in open class.
"I think on what he showed us last season he has earned the right to be called the best horse in the race," said Purdon.
"But these can be very tricky races, especially over the 2200m mobile.
"From a wide draw it is hard to go forward early and then if you do go back you are dictated to by the tempo of the race.
"He could go super here and finish third or fourth, but if things go his way he will be the horse to beat.
"But we have all seen enough of these types of races to know how hard they can be to win."
Pembrook Benny is still likely to start favourite even from barrier seven tonight, especially after downing St Barts and Big Dog at the workouts last week.
"He is about as ready as I can get him without having a race," said Purdon.
Pembrook Benny is the only horse in tonight's field to have won genuine open-class races but still meets talented opposition in Percy The Punter, Trigirl Brigade, St Barts and southerner Auditor General, who has been trialling well.
That is why the tempo of the race will play such a role in the finish because if one of those rivals is able to get an easy time in front or come off an economical trail, they could easily pace their last 800m in under 56 seconds, making field position crucial.
While tonight's open-class pacer could be determined by tempo and racing luck, the main trot should be another turn-up-and-win job for champion trotting mare One Over Kenny.
The millionairess bludgeoned inferior opposition from a 65m handicap last start and that fresh-up win provides her with a fitness edge over key rival Sno's Big Boy in tonight's $15,000 main trot, which is run over 2700m.
She faces a 30m handicap but that will be largely irrelevant with just five opponents in front of her and only bad luck or a drastic loss of form will see her beaten.
"She has come on a little bit since that fresh-up win and should be at least as good," said trainer Tony Herlihy.
That makes her everybody's anchor for the $50,000 Pick6, with catch driver Mark Purdon sitting in for Herlihy, who is attending his son Mark's wedding in Canada this week.
As has become the norm at Alexandra Park in the past month, the early maiden race looks to be one of the highlights of the night, with expensive debut failure The Hayne Train looking to make amends.
He was beaten when heavily backed last start but trainer Barry Purdon says he will be a better horse tonight.
"After that race he wasn't 100 per cent and I think he will be better this week," said Purdon.
He does meet plenty of good-quality rivals as the 3-year-olds prepare for next week's Sires' Stakes heat in tonight's race, which is named in honour of the late Kim McGregor, who worked at Alexandra Park as a vet until her death two months ago which shocked and saddened the industry.
PARK PUNTS
* The good thing: They don't come much better than One Over Kenny (R8, No 6). Makes Pick6 a Pick5.
* The class: Pembrook Benny (R7, No 7) has performed at a level his rivals tonight have not. Should overcome the draw.
* The reputation: Gold Ace (R3, No 6) looked sharp last season and has improved. In for a good season.
* Flying filly: Kotare Casino (R4, No 2) won when below her best last Friday. Won't need to go any better tonight.
Racing: Purdon urges caution
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