New Zealand success in Australia's elite juvenile races is virtually non-existent and victory by Probabeel today would have not only break that drought but would be some lucrative icing on the cake in the career of her champion sire Savabeel.
Trainer Jamie Richards knows Probabeel faces a mammoth task but is confident his work is done.
"I think she is as good now as when she won the Karaka Million," Richards told the Weekend Herald.
"Sometimes the back end of the juvenile season can be tricky with them but this is the race we set her for after the Karaka Million win and it has all gone well. "She is not usually a great track worker but she was very sharp on Tuesday and I am confident she is as good as she can be.
"Whether that is good enough we will find out. It is hard to line up that form out of the Slipper on a very wet track but we think an improved track this week can only help us."
Probabeel faces a wide draw but as a filly who likes to settle her in races (she drew the outside in the Karaka Million) and charge home her draw is hardly a huge issue, especially at Randwick.
As good as Probabeel is, and she might be exceptional, horses coming out of the Slipper two weeks earlier have a superb record in the Sires' so she is going to need to buck a trend and beat some very serious babies to win. Richards has less reason than his fellow Kiwi trainers to feel confident heading into the Derby today after In A Twinkling was average in the Tulloch last Saturday, which has not given him much time to find at least five lengths improvement.
"He has come through it well and I am sure he will be better this week but he will need to be," said Richards.
That also applies to another New Zealand failure in the Tulloch in Platinum Invador but the remaining Kiwis in today's Derby in Madison County, Surely Sacred, The Chosen One and Arrogant could all win without surprising.
While Richards will be in Sydney trying to win A$3m worth of races in 45 minutes, closer to home he warns punters not to ignore Our Abbadean in the $200,000 Fiber Fresh Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha.
She hasn't raced since finishing third in the Captain Cook at Trentham in December but was impressive at the Avondale trials recently, beating subsequent Moonee Valley winner Consensus, albeit the latter wasn't ridden out.
"We set her (Our Abbadean) for this race two months ago as a fresh-up assignment and everything has gone perfectly," says Richards.
"Obviously it won't be easy to win but I think she has a real show."
By the clock
Saturday's can't-miss races
4.25pm: $200,000 Breeders Stakes, Te Aroha.
4.35pm: A$300,000 Chairmans Hcp, Randwick.
5.15pm: A$1m Sires' Produce, Randwick
5.55pm: A$2m Australian Derby, Randwick.
7.15pm: A$3m Doncaster, Randwick.
