Tim Butt has chased too many age group feature races to rate Tribute a good thing at Cambridge tonight even though the form book says he should be.
The four-year-old goes into tonight's $40,000 Elliot Futurity on the back of a successful open class campaign, one which started with his winning the Franklin Cup and ended with two close up finishes in the Auckland Cup and Waikato Flying Mile.
So dropping back to taking on intermediate grade pacers tonight he should win, especially as his 20m handicap is negated by the presence of only two longshots off the front line.
So what is the problem? Butt says Tribute is.
"I can see why everybody would think he should win it but he just isn't that sort of horse," said the leading trainer.
"He is the type of horse who could place in an Auckland Cup but then come out the next week and get beaten in the grades.
"He is a very good stayer who loves following the speed but in a race like Friday's he couldn't work too much and win.
"We have had a lot of horses in these age group races and the gap between the best and the rest isn't much.
"So around Cambridge he will need a bit of luck to give horses like Mr Williams, Mr Bojangles and Albert Patron a start and beat them."
The start to the race will be crucial because if Tribute can avoid the early traffic he may be able to settle in front of some of his key rivals, a massive advantage on a Cambridge track that is punishing on those who settle back in the field.
If Tribute can get handy he should outstay his rivals.
But if he has to come wide without cover the race could be set up for one of the other favourites.
Albert Patron looks the best placed of those.
He has been solid from a standing start this summer and it has taken smart horses to beat him recently.
Just as competitive will be Mr Williams, provided he can handle the standing start.
Trainer-driver Brent Mangos is thrilled with how the entire is working but admits the start bothers him.
"I am not thinking he will gallop but even if he is slow we could end up behind Tribute and that would make things tough.
"But I couldn't be happier with him. His work this week has been better than ever."
Tribute will have a new driver tonight in Peter Ferguson, who replaces regular pilot Anthony Butt, although after having driven him to win the Franklin Cup in November, Ferguson knows the horse well.
Butt has opted to head to Australia where he will drive stablemate Foreal in Sydney tonight and Mister D G in the South Australian Cup tomorrow night.
Foreal has not raced since her fifth in the Miracle Mile in November but is flying in trackwork and will be hard to beat in the free-for-all at Harold Park tonight.
Earlier this week she was invited to contest the A$200,000 Chariots of Fire on January 27, a race Tribute could join her in if he wins tonight.
Tim Butt says the mare is in career-best condition and he rates her tonight even though it will be only her third start in open class.
But he is not so optimistic with veteran Mister D G at Globe Derby tomorrow night.
Mister D G is finding the road back from injury a difficult one and only battled into fourth after having the right run to win last Saturday's Shepparton Cup.
"The old Mister D G would have bolted in with that run but he is just a yard short of pace compared with the old days," said Butt.
"He has drawn barrier two on Saturday and that will be a big help because you have to stay handy at Globe Derby.
"If we can do that and the pace is on he is a chance but it is pretty much fingers crossed with him these days."
* Butt says punters could be about to see the real ability of stable trotting star Genius.
The exciting trotter has looked one of the few genuine stars to emerge this season and Butt thinks the best is yet to come.
Genius ran second at the trials midweek after losing 100m in an early gallop and has his trainer dreaming of another Interdominion victory after having won three with Take A Moment (two) and Lyell Creek.
"He is a lot sounder and trotting much better than he was in November," said Butt.
"He will head to Auckland this week then fly to Melbourne next Tuesday and if he keeps improving he could win the whole thing."
Genius has been heavily backed form $23 to $11 with Australian bookies to win the series which culminates at Moonee Valley on February 12.
Racing: Praise for Tribute is premature
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