KEY POINTS:
There are unlucky horses and very unlucky horses.
Difficult to know what to call the next level up, but Post Thyme is definitely one of them.
There is an old theory in horse racing that you can't keep making excuses for horses and that's relatively sensible - good horses are meant to make their own luck.
But you can make an exception with Post Thyme.
The filly is as talented as any of her age in New Zealand and has yet to win a race this season.
In her last three races Post Thyme ran in the $100,000 Sir Tristram Fillies Classic, $120,000 NZB Royal Stakes and $120,000 Eight Carat Classic.
With a decent break she might have won two of that trio of races, but didn't run a place in any of them.
Mark Du Plessiss, riding Post Thyme for the first time, felt the filly should have gone close in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic when sixth behind stylish winner Veloce Bella.
"She copped a bad check in the home straight and was really storming home late.
"I know the winner won well and it's easy to say later you should have won, but if we hadn't beaten the winner we would have definitely run second."
Four factors are in Post Thyme's favour for tomorrow's $300,000 New World Oaks at Trentham.
* She gets the wide open spaces of Trentham on which to unleash her powerful finishing sprint.
* She steps up to 2400m, which has always looked to be her distance.
* Du Plessis will know her much better having ridden her at Te Rapa.
* For the first time this season she has drawn a barrier inside No 10. she starts from No4.
Back runners are always vulnerable to luck in the closing stages of any race, but particularly in major races where the competition is high and jockeys are very competitive.
Ellerslie has definitely not suited Post Thyme's back-running style and Trentham will be a relief.
Du Plessis and trainer Leanne Bertling do not believe the filly has to be ridden in the last couple of runners. "She's a relaxed filly, but she stayed handier when she won a 2-year-old race at Ellerslie last season," says Bertling.
That was the Champagne Stakes in which she finished powerfully.
"Because of her wide barrier draws there has been no option but to drop her out the back," said Du Plessis. "But from four this time that won't be necessary."
The variable this time - and here Post Thyme could be unlucky again - is the Wellington weather.
Trentham copped 40mm of rain on Wednesday night and came up as 3.2 on the worst side of dead yesterday.
There was little drying and racing manager Brent Wall said of even greater concern was the forecast.
"We're meant to get showers tomorrow and on Saturday morning with rain developing during the day."
Bertling said although she would prefer a firm track, she knows Post Thyme can at least manage a dead surface. "We're in the same position as the connections of most of these fillies because most of them have not tried a bad track.
"It was dead when she won the Champagne Stakes and also when she was unlucky at Paeroa when resuming this campaign."
Veloce Bella will not only be rated the best filly if the wins the Oaks, she will be rated the toughest.
It is very difficult for a filly to have taken on the males in the Derby at Ellerslie two weeks ago and back up in the Oaks, but Veloce Bella has shown several times she has a marvellous constitution.
Princess Coup and Castlebar are just two of the handful of fillies that deserve winning consideration.
$300,000 Oaks
* Post Thyme has been unlucky in just about every start this preparation.
* She goes into tomorrow's classic with many more positives than she has possessed in any of the other races.
* The variable is the weather.
* Trentham copped a soaking on Wednesday night and Wellington's weather forecast for tomorrow is not good reading.
