Racing: Positive signs boost yearling sales

Will there be another Lion Tamer at Karaka? Photo / Christine Cornege

Predicting the outcome of a thoroughbred yearling sale is like a party game.

Not quite like the old game of "name six famous Belgians", but similar. A horse sale in the midst of a recession is a tricky affair.

However, there are a couple of positives for the New Zealand Bloodstock's Karaka sale which opens with the first day of the premier session next Monday.

The first is the low position of the New Zealand dollar. "That's going to provide very good value for money for buyers," said Sir Patrick Hogan, whose Cambridge Stud has dominated this sale for three decades.

"The New Zealand dollar is so weak, international buyers are getting a real advantage.

"It's also a good catalogue with High Chaparral in there, as well as Zabeel."

The second positive is the results of the recent Gold Coast Magic Millions sale.

The Australians have the opposite situation with their dollar to New Zealand - it is extremely high on the international scene.

That created a buying pressure and the international buying bench on the Gold Coast was noticeably thinner than in previous years.

Given that and a flat Queensland atmosphere because of the tragic floods, the sale did well to be only about 5 per cent down on the previous year.

Last season's Trainer Of The Year Shaune Ritchie knows it's going to be difficult to compete with Australian buyers at the two-day premier session at Karaka.

Speaking from the Select Yearling Sale in Sydney yesterday, Ritchie said: "Talking to a lot of Australians here today many of them are holding off buying and waiting for Karaka.

"They are going to look for value through the Australian dollar and they are going to get it.

"They have seen good results by the New Zealand horses in the spring in Melbourne and they will be good buyers.

"I don't expect many of us [New Zealanders] will be able to compete with the Australians at the premier sessions, but that's okay because I have seen a lot of nice colts in the Select catalogue.

"In my opinion, the Select sale is stronger than last year, on type at least."

Ritchie says at this point he has four orders to buy: two from Hong Kong and one each from Australia and New Zealand.

Cambridge trainer Murray Baker said his stable had the usual number of orders going into the round of sales.

"The horses I have seen at the various yearling parades have been of a very high standard - outstanding, actually. There will be a lot of interest, particularly from Australians and why wouldn't there be - as usual, we breed the best."

The Bakers set one of the platforms for Karaka by winning the A$1.5 million Victoria Derby on October 30 with New Zealand-bred Lion Tamer.

New Plymouth horseman John Wheeler said he similarly had orders from clients, but won't be specking horses himself this year. "I have actually got more horses than I need, but I will be buying for clients."

A topline horse can generate interest and off the back of Jimmy Choux, Hastings' John Bary says he has had expressions of interest from people who have told him if he likes one at the sales they want to be included.

Waikato syndicator David Ellis runs Te Akau Racing Stables and expects to spend as much as he did when picking up 52 horses across the series and the Ready To Run sale last year, syndicating every share in each one of them. His specific approach is to target horses who could be likely to be prospects for the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Riccarton in the spring of their 3-year-old campaigns.

"Te Akau is in a great position now. If the horses look likely to measure up to those sort of races then they will be retained in New Zealand and aimed at Sydney and Melbourne, and those who look below that level will be sent to our Singapore stable."

Ellis points to a Savabeel colt he bought at Karaka. "He wasn't going to be a group horse here so we sent him [Big Galant] to Singapore and he has won his first two races, both worth S$65,000 [$66,670].

"Another of ours we sent to Singapore from the South Island and he won his first start for S$55,000.

"If he hadn't been running in that he'd have been in a $5000 race at Greymouth."

Mark Walker, who trains for Te Akau in Singapore, went to second on the premiership behind Laurie Laxon with two winners on Friday night and a further two on Sunday night.

Remarkably, Ellis buys 95 per cent of his horses each year on spec.

"We have found it so much easier when you have got an actual product to sell.

"It won't be easy to bowl the Aussies over with the exchange rate, but we still have horses we believe we can afford and we are going to pin our ears back and have a go."