The best horse at Saturday's $1.5 million Harness Jewels may have virtually no winning chance 100m after the start of his race.
That is the reality astute driver David Butcher wants punters to be aware of before they back superstar Tintin In America in the $200,000 4-year-old male pace at Cambridge this weekend.
In a sea of great horses racing on Saturday, Tintin In America is the greatest, having looked a future New Zealand Cup or Interdominion winner in the past 12 months.
In that time, he has won his division of the Jewels last season, the Australasian Breeders Crown, Messenger Pace and almost grabbed Monkey King in the Auckland Cup.
While his rivals hold few fears for him on raw ability on Saturday, Butcher says his draw of one on the second line could make him either a certainty or a no-hoper.
"Our chances pretty much come down to what Highview Tommy does," says Butcher of the horse Tintin In America follows out.
"If he leads and we trail to be honest we will probably win.
"But if he hands up [the lead] then I don't think he can win and we probably can't either.
"Being 4-year-olds these horses don't tend to get tired over a mile like the younger horses do and if we are three back on the markers after the start then we might face mission impossible.
"I think it is important punters realise that."
Something similar happened to Tintin In America in the Taylor Mile two starts ago when he got trapped in the one-one and with those around him not fading he never got a run.
So what would Butcher do if he was driving Highview Tommy and had the chance to take his key rival out of play, but possibly at his own expense?
"If I was Blair [Orange], I'd stay in front because if he does that and he is good enough he might still beat me, or, at worst, run second.
"But if he hands up he is almost saying he can't win anyway."
That race is shaping as the most tactical of the nine Jewels features on Saturday and is set to have punters, bookmakers and even a few drivers confused right up until start time.
But Butcher is keen to erase any questions about tactics with De Lovely in the 3-year-old filly pace.
While the New Zealand Oaks winner has rarely been asked to show gate speed in her short career, Butcher will be demanding it of her on Saturday.
"From barrier one we have to lead and stay there," he says.
"She is flying at the moment and is good enough to pace 1:55 so if they can come around her and beat her doing that then so be it.
"And she has gate speed. One night at Alexandra Park I asked her to show it and she flew early."
Butcher is not so confident with Chocolate Brownie, who has the ability but possibly not the maturity to down Miami H and Kahdon in the 3-year-old trot.
"He is going to be a better horse next year and still has some things to get his head around yet.
"That makes it hard to beat a horse like Miami H with his gate speed."
Meanwhile, the sale of Kahdon to the Mark Jones stable has been finalised and she will leave trainer Paul Nairn after Saturday's race, in which Jones replaces David Butt as her driver.
Racing: Poor draw for hotshot has driver concerned
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