Even the prospect of fine weather and a wide draw, which has sunk so many hopes in the Kumara Nuggets over the years, might not be enough to defeat Patronage at the Kumara Racing Club's meeting today.
Set for the race since being purchased by Trevor Casey and sent to Neil Coulbeck's stable in August, Patronage won first up at Wingatui in December then battled into fifth in the Banks Peninsula Cup last week.
That was on a firm track and in nine attempts Patronage has never won on firm.
But Kumara, with its swamp-based spongy surface, can be forgiving and that should help the early favourite.
After Motukarara trainer Coulbeck had five words which boded ill for the opposition.
"I'm happy with the horse," he said.
Patronage was proven in PQ company in wetter tracks before joining the Coulbeck team.
It is true the Nuggets is no longer won by the sort of plugger who might have been successful a decade ago.
Horses wanting some give in the ground, however, still have something in their favour.
The draw is more decisive.
Badly drawn horses do not, as a rule, fare well at Kumara and rider Jamie Bullard will be pressed to find a possie for Patronage early.
Coulbeck has two other live winning chances in Hilton Jewel and Smite.
Both like to sit off the pace and can mount big sprints.
If they get that sort of run, especially Churchill Stakes winner Hilton Jewel from the three gate, the stablemates will be a threat.
Ngawhitu Star has been set up for this.
She has a nice draw and will have in-form jockey Andrew Taggart on board.
Aubwin only has to stay the trip to win.
Truthful, before he won last year, was not a noted middle distance horse and has not been one since.
Truthful's Canterbury trainers John and Karen Parsons are seeking successive wins in the $22,000 Allied Petroleum Kumara Gold Nuggets.
The partnership won the Kumara feature last year with the son of Trustful, and John Parsons does not want rain to dampen his horse's chances.
"I'm crossing my fingers the rain stays away as we want a good track for the horse," Parsons said.
"He won well on a firm track last year, so at this stage I'm hopeful."
Parsons said Truthful would go into the Kumara Nuggets slightly underdone compared with last season although his preparation has been similar.
Aubwin's trainer, Steven Woodsford, might have a major claim on the second leg of the double with Townman, a smart sprinter in any conditions with a draw to suit.
While his stablemate, Golden Memories, will attract money as the topweight, Townman, a good fourth in the Stewards Handicap at Riccarton, could have the edge, even at equal weights.
However Count Five from the Mandy Brown stable could test him.
Count Five was run down late by the talented Torlesse at the trials last Sunday and his second placing in the Stewards to Tooth is worthwhile form in this field.
He has won his only start at the 1100m distance as well.
- NZPA
Racing: Patronage should take Nuggets despite sun, draw
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