It's never easy dropping back in distance for a stayer, but Our Johny is probably good enough to break some rules and get away with a win at Awapuni this afternoon.
The AJC Derby placegetter has to drop 400m off his distance directory to tackle the $60,000 The Oaks Stud Manawatu Classic, but he represents the top of the talent spectrum.
Remember his storming third in the $500,000 New Zealand Derby. Co-owner and trainer Raymond Connors says the 3-year-old has freshened since Sydney.
If you couple up Our Johny, The Raj and Danz Star in quinellas and trifectas you shouldn't go too far wrong.
Julinsky Princess (No 4, R3) is not your everyday horse, but she has real class. Trainer Brent Hrstitch says he made something of a blue assuming the filly was fit enough to go close to winning when coming back from a five-month break at Ellerslie last start. She finished fourth and Hrstitch says she is a lot fitter now. Rosetti Bay (No 3) is solid and hits the line strongly when she gets the run to suit and from barrier No 2 this should be one of those days.
If you can ignore the fact that Cut The Cake (No 1, R2) is second up from a spell he looks the winner. Derby winners are more than just handily placed in one-win company. Cut The Cake found the 1600m a shade sharp for him when resuming, but impressed with the stylish way he hit the finish to take fourth. He steps up to a much more suitable 2000m and if he is to recapture the form that nabbed him the premier classic, he probably has to win. The wide draw is not ideal, but he'll drop back anyway.
Only the best horse can win four from their first six and King Of Ashford (No 2, R4) looks top drawer material. He bolted away from a Trentham PQ field with 57kg on his back last start and has 56.5kg in the same grade today. There does not look to be one of his class in the field. Take the short odds.
Hasta La Ciao Ciao (No 4, R5) is going to start a short-priced favourite and I'm not sure she's going to be value. Sure, she is massively talented and will win decent races, but don't lose sight of the fact she has had only four raceday starts and meets the battle-hardened Barcelona (No 1). Hasta La Ciao Ciao gets 3kg off Barcelona and she might need it. Barcelona is a group-rated winner over a good field at Tauranga. Even very smart horses can hit a flat spot when coming through the grades quickly. If the favourite hits one today she will be very vulnerable. For me each way Barcelona, despite her 57kg.
You have to like Wahid (No 1, R7) in the $120,000 Sires Produce, despite the worry that he has been up racing for a long time. At his best and on a firm track, you can see him storming to the finish of a strong 1400m. Its that which keeps you in. Pulcinella (No9), Crepe De Chine (No 8) and Kindacross (No 2) are the major players. It is a genuine concern that the inside strip of new ground at Awapuni will prove to be a faster lane than out wide and that Wahid will have to get to the outside from back in the field to make his run.
Once the track looked certain to firm up from last week's disaster, Mr Multiwin (No 3, R8) was going to be short odds to make it six from six since returning from Hong Kong with a bung leg. He has certainly climbed in the weights, but even against the best field he has met in New Zealand, he looks the goods. The remarkably rejuvenated Sovereign (No 2) is unbeaten in three attempts at Awapuni and his finishing burst could prove troublesome. Golden Harvest (No 6) is the rapid improver.
Don't like the weight-for-age Awapuni Gold Cup, which looks more like a handicap. Maroofity (No 7, R9) if he gets his own way in front, which he may not, or Penitentiary (No 8). Leave it alone unless you just have to have a bet.
If they get firm footing at Te Rapa, juvenile Crusoe (No 4, R5) should break through for his first win. He has had no luck in two runs. His saddle slipped and failed to handle the wet track last time. He looks the goods.
Mr Robert (No 4, R6) should go close to another win before the wet tracks set in. He is fitter for his most recent race and is at his best distance.
Haylee Baylee (No 9, R7) has a wide draw to cope with, but has class on her side, The little-raced filly goes well when fresh. Reely Smokin (No 15) for the multi bettors.
Racing: Our Johny good enough to break the rules
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