A year ago Matamata trainer Mark Walker was eyeing a green, inexperienced 2-year-old in his stable.
Te Akau principal David Ellis strolled past and Walker said: "I'm going to set this horse for next year's Victoria Derby."
Twelve months of full planning will be put to the test when Our Heir Apparent walks into the Flemington barriers this afternoon for the A$1.5 million Victoria Derby.
"I have to be honest, I thought Mark was on drugs when he said that to me last year," said Ellis as he flew into Melbourne yesterday for what could be one of the greatest Te Akau moments yet. And here we are exactly a year later.
"Mark has planned every day of the last year so carefully and if he can pull this off it will be a master stroke. I've got to take my hat off to him just for the planning."
Don't forget how difficult it is for a New Zealand-trained 3-year-old to win the Victoria Derby - 1971 was the last.
Yet Mark Walker is quietly confident of going close with a horse he knows is battling immaturity, more in terms of lack of ringcraft than physicality.
To win a Victoria Derby - 2500m in late October - with a horse that has had just three race starts, would be one of the great training feats.
Mike and Paul Moroney, who operate a stable either side of the Tasman, are equally bullish about the chances of New Zealand going close with the other representative, Monaco Consul.
Our Heir Apparent finished a close second to one of his rivals today in Southern Skye in the lead-up Geelong Classic after covering a lot of extra ground around the final turn from a rearward position.
It's not just the experience from that run that Walker believes will improve the Zabeel colt.
"They had to sedate him with some pretty heavy stuff when he played up on the flight on the way over here," Walker said.
"He's always been a bit naughty when he gets claustrophobic.
"As a result of the drugs they gave him for the sedation we had to be a bit easy on him going into the Geelong race and he didn't do a lot of work at all."
Given that, Our Heir Apparent did remarkably well in the closing stages in a dog-fight with the winner and would still have won if he hadn't ducked in twice inside the final 200.
"I think if Craig Williams had ridden him before I believe the horse would have won at Geelong."
Walker says Our Heir Apparent has really picked up and thrived since the Geelong race.
"He's eating his head off and is a very happy horse.
"Craig rode him in a gallop on Wednesday and was impressed."
Walker believes he has some natural advantages.
"When the distances increase New Zealand horses start coming into their own.
"Half this field won't see out the trip (2500m), so you've halved the field to start with.
"Then, if you have some luck, well, you might just be lucky enough."
The Zabeel factor is strong.
"He's got that Cambridge Stud brand on his shoulder and Patrick Hogan has always been a fan and stayed in the horse.
"He's going to be a top class staying horse at some stage of his career and we're just hoping this isn't too early."
So is Mike Moroney of Monaco Consul. The handsome son of High Chaparral has had two more starts than Our Heir Apparent and in the last of them made the Australians look a bit ordinary in winning the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.
As a result Monaco Consul is the only group one winner in the field.
"My concern is that he's a real colt with a trick or two. He's very much on the new side."
Monaco Consul is owned by Owen Glenn and Aucklander Gerard Peterson.
Rain fell steadily in Melbourne yesterday afternoon with a thunderstorm or two forecast overnight and possible showers today.
But Flemington is one of the world's greatest drying tracks and unless a lot of rain arrives today the footing should be close to perfect this afternoon.
Neither trainer is worried if it's not. The Randwick track was heavy when Monaco Consul won in Sydney.
"All it will do is make it more of a dour staying contest and that won't worry me," says Mark Walker.
Racing: Our Heir Apparent can do it: Walker
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