The Guineas is one of the hottest Derby lead-ups in years, with Willydoit versus Hinekaha, Bourbon Proof and the unbeaten Oceana Dream as well as Victorian raider Thedoctoroflove.
The latter is trained by expat Kiwis Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young, who along with Australian jockeys Daniel Moor and John Allen add transtasman intrigue to the meeting.
The meeting also boasts the Ciaron Maher-trained Interpretation in the Avondale Cup, while the Uncle Remus – over 1400m for the three-year-olds – is an ideal lead-up to the NZB Kiwi and contains four horses already confirmed in the slot race, with that list set to grow on Saturday.
While it sounds almost disrespectful calling high-quality races lead-ups, that’s the reality, with horses targeting the Champions Day on March 8.
The $9m raceday is one few people in New Zealand racing have really got their heads around the enormity of yet, even though it is only two weeks away.
The horses contesting the Uncle Remus on Saturday could be racing for 30 times that stake in the NZB Kiwi, the Avondale Guineas contenders race for five times as much in the Derby and even Orchestral and El Vencedor will be racing for double Saturday’s $500,000 stake in the $1m Bonecrusher NZ Stakes on Champions Day.
“That is why we chose this race, yes because it is a Group 1, but also because it is the best possible lead-in to the Bonecrusher,” says Robert Wellwood, who co-trains Orchestral with Roger James.
“Obviously we would love to win both and we think she can still win this week because she has definitely come on since winning the Aotearoa Classic.
“But she is also probably ideally looking for 2000m and that could be tricky in this race where she might get a fair way off her main rival El Vencedor.
“I see him staying handy to a likely leader in Belclare and having a big head-start on us, so whether we can run him down might come down to tempo and also maybe how handy we can stay.”
Orchestral has been notoriously relaxed bordering on lazy in the early stages of her races and Wellwood says while they would love to see her settle midfield outer on Saturday, they are not counting on her changing her natural racing pattern.
The James/Wellwood stable have NZB Kiwi contender Dealt With drawn well in the Uncle Remus and he could even lead and get a long away in front of favourite Checkmate, who has barrier 11.
“He had a week at the water walker after the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old and has come back great and we think if he runs straight he will be really hard to catch.”
They also have unbeaten three-year-old Oceana Dream drawn 14 in the stacked Guineas, where all the other favourites have drawn wide: Willydoit (12), Bourbon Proof (13) and Hinekaha (11).
“It could be a really niggly race with a lot of the big chances getting back and keeping an eye on each other.
“Like so many of the races on Saturday, we are going to know a lot more about what to expect on Champions Day after seeing what happens this week.”
Avondale Cup / Guineas Day
Where: Ellerslie.
When: Saturday, first race 1pm.
What: Both the Avondale Cup and Avondale Guineas feature, but the meeting is also boosted by the Group 1 Sport Nation Ōtaki-Māori Classic being moved to Ellerslie.
Extra bonus: The Trevor and Corralie Eagle Uncle Remus Stakes is already a Listed race but doubles as a crucial NZB Kiwi lead-up.
Biggest names: Orchestral, El Vencedor, Konasana, Willydoit, Hinekaha, Checkmate, Dealt With, Interpretation.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
