By MIKE DILLON
Mark Sweeney started believing in records yesterday.
And now the 25-year-old Waikato jockey is even more confident about his chances of winning this afternoon's $270,000 Wellington Cup on Ebony Honor.
The reason? Nearly half the past decade's Auckland Cup second placegetters have gone on to win the Wellington Cup four weeks later.
"Really?" said Sweeney excitedly when told.
Last year's Wellington Cup winner, Second Coming, finished second to Able Master at Ellerslie. Before him, Aerosmith, Flying Luskin, Castletown and Daria's Fun did the same.
"Well, that's great, because I'm due to win this race," Sweeney said.
He has finished second in the past two Wellington Cups, on Emerald and Mac Da Knife.
"I didn't really fancy the chances of either of those two horses, but I really think I can win on Ebony Honor."
In his favour is the fact that his mount was not suited to the easy track conditions in the Auckland Cup and the lead-up Queen Elizabeth, in which he was also second.
"It was a terrific effort in the Auckland Cup because he was left in front and Our Unicorn grabbed him only in the last little bit," Sweeney said.
"Ebony Honor has got a short, sharp sprint for a 3200m horse, after which he grinds, but he grinds exceptionally well. Look what he did in the Avondale Cup when he was beaten by two noses."
One of the biggest dangers will again be Our Unicorn, but Sweeney and the Ebony Honor camp can take comfort from the fact that records show while the second horse in the Auckland Cup shines at Trentham, the winners at Ellerslie have a shocking record of completing the double.
Castletown did it in 1994 and before him was the outstanding stayer Il Tempo way back in 1970.
When the TAB's fixed odds closed last night, Ebony Honor was joint $8 third favourite, with Kaapeon behind Smiling Like ($5) and Our Unicorn on $6.
Sydney jockey Chris Munce will ride Armstrong, who looks the best-value bet after sitting wide in the Auckland Cup and finishing not far away in sixth place. He is trained in the Central Districts and the left-handed Trentham track will suit him much better.
Riding whiz Michael Walker is hoping Smiling Like can provide him with his first group-one winner, as is the mare's owner Sir Patrick Hogan, but Walker has a chance earlier in the programme to achieve that on Country Rose in the $130,000 Thorndon Mile.
Racing: Omens point to cup win for Sweeney
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