Then sort out your next best chances in the other four legs, anchor those and go wide in the legs you anchored in your first bet. That spreads your chances, even if it means reducing your percentage.
LEG 1: Top Pick: Nippin (No 2). Has not always delivered, but when he has he's looked very smart, like he did when he charged home at Te Rapa last start.
Next Best: Pentire Lad (No 8), Presitigiosa (No 10) and The Prince (No 9).
Others: Master Zenno (No 3) and Gus (No 1).
Roughie: Seducer (No 13).
LEG 2: You should be able to nail this down to four, or simply anchor the favourite Ockham's Razor (No 1) who was too good in the Karaka Million. He won't have trouble switching from right-handed Ellerslie to the reverse way of going - he's trained left-handed in Melbourne. The beauty of this race is that he meets the others at level weights as the winner of $567,075.
Next Best: Lumiere Blue (No 3), Seleno (No 7) and Choice Bro (No 2). There was an awful lot to like about the way Lumiere Blue stretched close to the line to win at Te Rapa last start to beat a smart type in Magic Shaft. He's trained on the track and John Wheeler has a high opinion of him. Seleno is resuming. She was barely one length from Travino and Silk Pins at Pukekohe before spelling and that is great form for this.
LEG 3: Top Pick: Demophon (No 1). Nothing all day will appreciate the 2kg weight allowance more than this bloke. The 57kg looks much more attractive than 59kg. There should be a little yield in the track, which will suit him.
Next best: Royal Queen (No 3) would have been top pick if connections had chosen to claim, but she meets Demophon 2kg worse off than last start when barely a long neck separated them at Trentham. Royal Queen is not easy to ride, so she may not have suited an apprentice, but the 58kg looks daunting for a mare. Don't leave her out though. The interesting factor will be the racing pattern. The surface should be perfect with perhaps just a slight bite in it, in which case on-speed horses might not be disadvantaged. That would suit Royal Queen. Dancing Dee (No 4). Forget her last run when caught wide at Trentham and go here on her previous two victories, both achieved on this track.
LEG 4: Jetset Lad (No 5) is a possible anchor here. He finished powerfully in a strong field in the group one Thorndon Mile last start and will appreciate the step up to 1800m and racing on his home track. John Wheeler feels he has this bloke right at his best and Sam Spratt has a good barrier to work with.
Next Best: Cassini (No 3). Has been hampered by track conditions since winning the Wanganui and Manawatu Cups. High-class staying mare at best and well up to winning this. Smoulder (No 9) was only 2.2 lengths off Say No More in the Thorndon Mile when fourth and looms as a strong hope.
Longshot: Back In Black (No 4).
LEG 5: Top Pick: Innovation (No 3). Beaten by a wet track at Stratford two back then turned in her best run yet to be just three lengths away from Quintessential when seventh in the Desert Gold Stakes at Trentham. Any of the horses that finished in front of her that day would be the $2.50 favourite here. The first step up to 1800m is going to suit beautifully.
Musts: Our Ko Ko (No 2), Moscow Pearl (No 5) and Vaayala (10). All three of these have been strong at the end of their latest races and look staying types who are going to be suited by the extra distance here.
Possible: Blooming Hell (No 1).
LEG 6: Top Pick: Medici (No 8). Won at Awapuni two starts back like a stayer going right to the top then went back there on a slow surface and couldn't cope. Will appreciate the better conditions today and even if the 2300m of his last win would have suited better than today's 2000m, he has had plenty of time to freshen and should have speed in his legs.
Must Haves: Guns At Five (No 3) and Star Of Show (No 16). Guns At Five has looked a really, rugged stayer on the up in winning his last three on the trot. Like Medici, he has to drop back to 2000m, but has the right barrier to get the cosy run.
Please Yourself: Affirmative (No 5) comes in well at the weights with a claim and Azincourt (No 7), who doesn't win out of turn, but can fry you when in the mood.
