That leave the wide barrier to overcome, something Tiley is not panicked about, the weather being his main concern. "I'd be happy with mid-range dead," he says, so it appears to be all systems go if the track comes up as expected.
Tough mare Chintz is going to appreciate the dead track as will last week's Te Aroha winner Jubilate. Chintz is coming to the end of a busy campaign, but trainer Tony Pike is delighted with her condition.
Jubilate is underrated and that Te Aroha win was certainly no fluke.
He likes Ellerslie. If Neena Rock can get some luck from out wide her undoubted ability can take her into it and Pussy O'Reilly is each-way value.
Toss up in Race 2 between Lion Red (No2) and Wisecrack (No3). Lion Red took a close result between the pair last meeting here, but balancing that is that he goes up 2kg to 59kg and Wisecrack covered plenty of extra ground last time.The combination of those factors perhaps leans you towards Wisecrack, but Lion Red has been the more consistent of the pair this preparation.
Orbity (No1, R3) is certainly going to be tougher to dispose of today than she was when resuming at Tauranga last start. The somewhat rain-affected footing will also help, although she would appreciate even more rain, but the 58.5kg is always a worry for a 3-year-old filly. She can't be ruled out, but the weight prevents her being a special. Despite a lead-up barrier trial, Equanimity (No5) produced very fresh at Tauranga last start and raced like it, finishing last.
She is a whole lot better than that and can produce something a lot better this time. Dufellforte (No3) has a bit of class and should still be improving. A number of the Ellerslie races lend themselves to each-way betting and this is one of them.
Difficult to win four straight, but In Style (No4, R4) has managed it.
Taking it to five in a row should be more difficult, but she will get her chance because she comes into this perfectly in the weights. The issue could be the footing, if it became worse than dead. She had one start on a slow track and was well beaten. If she gets through the footing she should win. Good field though with Fiftyshadesofgrey (No6), Biggin Hill (No9) and Kelly O'Reilly all making appeal.
Asprey (No3, R5) cost himself dearly when he raced greenly on debut at New Plymouth. Even with that experience he won't find it easy stepping to 1600m in this field, but he's highly regarded. Darci's Dream (No8) didn't help himself when he overraced when trailing the leader mid-race as beaten favourite on this track last start. Under 58.5kg he did well that day to be just beaten and has had a slight gear change. He drops 3.5kg and has to rate highly.
Plenty of chances in Race 6, one of them being Fully On (No5). He looked useful when getting to the finish nicely in fourth on debut at Pukekohe and has a nice barrier to use here. Coriander (No8) has to win one eventually - she deserves it.
A barrier trial victory showed Twilight Dragon (No6, R7) is ready to perform in his first race since September. He looked an exceptional sprinter last preparation and with the easing of the track to make it comfortable for his legs, he looks the one. Flower Bomb (No7) is underrated and can handle an "off" track.
She's Samashing (No6, R9) has a touch of dash about her and she is a real chance to make it three straight here. The easing of the footing brings Take Charge (No10) right into the race.
Don't drop Orion (No4, R10) for his last-start failure. The run before was a beaut. He can bounce back. Stand Your Ground (No8) is right in it, coming back from a Derby attempt.
