Racing: November Rain may not be safest bet at Riccarton

It's going to take a special effort to contain Vincent Mangano. Photo / Getty Images

On this day last year, the buzz around emerging star Wall Street made the group two Coupland's Bakeries Mile a carnival highlight.

The only stand-out feature of today's running of the $250,000 group two event at Riccarton is how few top-liners the race has managed to attract.

A third of the field is still eligible for R90 company or below, including fixed odds favourite November Rain, the mount of in-form Melbourne-based Kiwi Michael Walker.

It's going to be fascinating to see where Walker positions the Richard Collett-trained mare from her 19 gate.

Last year's New Zealand Oaks runner-up isn't an overly brilliant beginner, but Walker definitely is.

Safer bets may be Awapuni visitor Primed And Ready (leg two) and the Hillis-trained Haere Mai (leg four), both of whom will appreciate longer trips. Gaston (leg six) is another cost-cutter for those planning to widen the net in the Coupland's Mile.

LEG ONE

Highest rated (85) mare Amaryllis lost an off fore plate last time out at Pukekohe yet still boomed home for a close second in a sub 1m 10s 1200m. Yet to win in four attempts at 1400m, but those efforts include a late-closing second to She Rules in a tick over 1m 22s last spring, and she's best suited to set weight conditions.

Matamata visitor Que Sera also looks nicely placed. She lost valuable ground with an early check at Te Rapa on October 25, but still loomed as the likely winner in a strong R80 line-up with 200m to go. Round out the spread with unbeaten Ashburton mare Shamrox, a duel acceptor in the group two feature.

LEG TWO

Primed And Ready should be just that for a winning debut over 1800m. His last-start effort for seventh behind Simply Brilliant over 1600m at Awapuni was better than it looks on paper.

He was slow to begin and then got squeezed out of a gap when just warming up in the straight. Close to an anchor on his huge fresh-up effort for third in a strong R70 line-up at Hastings on October 2.

LEG THREE

Peter McKay's spring domination at Riccarton looks set to continue with impressive first-day Pegasus Stakes winner Vincent Mangano. It's the same path McKay's successfully taken with his former Riccarton specialist Clifton Prince. The Karaka Million winner had no right to win on Saturday. He was running on a track he dislikes and spotting tearaway Celeris an impossible head-start with 400m to go. On a firmer track, a 1kg weight relief and an extra 200m, it's going to take a special effort to contain him.

Former Aussie performer Kiloton is probably the best chance of spoiling the party. He's freshened up nicely for this, judging by two recent trial wins and was fourth in both the Railway and Telegraph Handicaps last campaign. Southern star Coup Align will ensure another hot tempo, but jumps 5kg in the handicap from his win in this event last year.

LEG FOUR

Don't be deterred by Haere Mai's carpark alley. The 2000m start point at Riccarton doesn't penalise those drawn wide as much as some smaller tracks. He does have some gate speed too, which means Samantha Collett may elect to push forward and sit one out back in fourth or fifth. With some luck, he's close to an anchor in this line-up.

He's had only two middle distance runs in his career, but one produced a close-up third to Sophia Babe and Zarzuela in the Great Northern Guineas Prelude (2100m).

LEG FIVE

It may not have the depth of recent years, but the evenness of the field means you'll at least drop out a fair few Pick6 rivals if you make it through safely. Michael Walker wouldn't be flying in from Melbourne for the one ride if the stable wasn't confident of November Rain's chances.

But she'll also need a ton of luck in the running. From her three alley, Alagant Satin is going to be tough for the favourite to catch. Sam Spratt, who partnered Mufhasa to win the 2008 event, should ensure she gets the run of the race and perhaps compensation for missing a recent run in the Sale Cup in Victoria because of a travel hiccup.

Hold It Harvey and The Meista give the South Island its best chance of victory since Final Reality prevailed in a below par 2007 line-up.

LEG SIX

On a day shaping as a clean-sweep for northerners, Gaston offers a stand-out chance to tighten the Pick6 outlay. He's been close up in all three runs this campaign and this field looks a notch below those.

If you can afford the insurance, Platinum Dancer, Figure Again and Bellonet have the credentials to threaten.