Scotlynn Jane may be up against the best pacing fillies in the country tonight but driver Mark Jones says her biggest danger is herself.
The Canterbury juvenile makes her Alexandra Park debut in the $100,000 Magness Benrow Sires' Stakes Championship, which brings together an outstanding crop of freshman fillies.
While Jones believes Scotlynn Jane is as good, if not better, than her rivals he says she is going to need to be a superstar to win.
"I don't think a lot of people realise how hard it is for our [Southern] juveniles when they come north to Alexandra Park," admitted Jones.
"The northern juveniles are a lot more like Aussie horses in that they are quick to leave the mobile, run hard all the way and corner well on tighter tracks.
"Quite often we send horses north that we think are pretty sharp off the gate and they get lost against the northern horses inside the first 100m.
"From there they almost can't win."
Jones says the different training culture and track sizes between the two islands is a major contributor to why northern juveniles so often shine in the major races, as has been the case at Addington this month.
He says Scotlynn Jane can overcome that but she will need a lot of things to go her way.
"I know she is good enough to win but she is still very green," said Jones.
"She has only had three starts and can still get a bit wobbly.
"But she has real speed and is tough. So this week will be a case of finding out just how good she is."
Scotlynn Jane has drawn barrier three tonight and if she can get to the markers first of the favoured runners she will have a huge advantage in a race that contains several strong stayers who should ensure a genuine pace.
"I am not sure she has natural gate speed. I'd love to lead on her but if we can't, and I don't really think we can, then I wouldn't be scared to sit parked."
That could be a hard way to win the group one event, especially with excitement machines Top Tempo and One Dream also drawn on the front line.
Top Tempo had looked the best filly in the country until her first loss at Alexandra Park on May 5 but she bounced back last Friday.
"She wasn't herself the night she ran fifth so I am willing to forgive her that," says trainer-driver Mark Purdon.
"I think she might be the best of these fillies but the gaps between them all close as the season goes on.
"There are a few fillies in here who can pace 2:5 for 1700m and when those types of horses are against the markers then it is hard to beat them from wide on the track.
"So no matter how good she [Top Tempo] is we are going to need luck this week.
Purdon was pleased with how Top Tempo handled Alexandra Park last Friday after he added a pole to her gear following her hanging performance when beaten the start before.
While the two southern-trained fillies will have plenty of support tonight the stunning win of One Dream here two weeks ago could see her press for favouritism.
The Dream Away filly has always had a massive reputation and lived up to it with one of the juvenile wins of the season last start.
She may not have the experience and therefore ringcraft of some of her rivals tonight but the possibility of a hot pace would appear to suit her perfectly as she looks a stayer of genuine quality.
The filly facing the biggest test tonight is Reality Check, who has been the highest earner among her crop so far this season.
She has won two Sales Series features, both times when able to find the lead, but will start from the outside of the second line tonight.
In a field of this quality that may be too big a handicap to overcome.
Tonight's other feature, the North Island Breeders Stakes, looks Waitfornoone's to win or lose depending on her barrier manners.
The Michelle Wallis-trained mare has developed into a superb stayer but cost punters plenty when she blew the standing start last week. Even from a 30m handicap tonight she seems only to need a safe beginning to claim the $30,000 feature which is down in the class of some recent seasons.
Racing: Northern exposure a must
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