"It [rain] wouldn't help, in fact, I'd say I'll be as badly affected as anyone."
If any predicted rain does not arrive before the City of Auckland Cup (6.20pm), we could probably assume the hot favourite in early betting, More Than Sacred, is going to take plenty of beating.
Even allowing for her light weight of 53kg, she was impressive winning the Waikato Gold Cup with a late dash. She goes up to 55.5kg, but that is just 1.5kg above the minimum.
Co-trainer Tony Pike is unconcerned about More Than Sacred's wide gate - she will come out of the outside of the 18 runners - but he is worried about the probability of rain. He has seven engaged on the day and says she will be the worst affected by rain.
One who won't is Sum Up, a much better stayer than his 76066 formline suggests.
He has a record of three wins from eight starts on slow surfaces and one win from four on heavy footing.
He looked impressive flashing home late into sixth, only 2.4 lengths from Annie Higgins in the Counties Cup and came from an awkward rails spot to finish sixth to More Than Sacred in the Waikato Cup.
He is at his best in tough contests, like when the speed is on throughout and on rain-affected footing when it can become a slog home. He has drawn nicely at No7 and Rory Hutchings should be able to place him to advantage.
Like most races on the card, this will develop into a raffle if the track turns wet.
Soriano has form in the wet. She surprised just about everyone when she was just nutted back to third in Historian's Zabeel Classic on Boxing Day.
A big advantage to her that day was getting the perfect trail behind the leaders and from the No4 gate this time there is no reason why she cannot achieve the same.
El Soldado has a habit of popping up when least expected and this is the type of race he could do it in. He finished well back at Te Rapa last start, but it was only his second run back from a break and he probably needed it.
Despite her 58kg and Lance Noble's concern about rain, Annie Higgins cannot be completely ignored.
She is all class, all heart and if she can get just reasonable purchase on the track she will finish off. It will be no surprise if she wins.
