Racing: Nicole Amy a class act in the wet

By Race 11 at Te Rapa today pretty much the only consideration will be which of the horses can handle the conditions.

Oh, there will be one more - who picks the right path to come down the home straight on.

Apprentice Harry Kasim is the least experienced rider in the race, but he'll be well schooled on where to pick his path for the last 450m and if he gets it right then Nicole Amy can win the last.

Two of Nicole Amy's three career wins have been at Te Rapa and she is the horse on the up in the R80 band races in the north up to 1600m.

She had no luck when sixth in a much better R90 field on this track last start.

Additionally, although the official rating that day was slow - and is possibly going to be again today - this track will be much worse than that day, particularly with 10 previous races across it.

Nicole Amy showed she was a class act in the wet last year and sets up nicely for this race with Harry Kasim's 3kg claim.

Gorse looked nothing short of spectacular winning at Hastings last start after being equal last on the home bend. The question here is whether he can quicken to the same brilliant degree in the conditions he'll strike in Race 11, regardless of whether it fines up or not. If he does he'll win.

It's true that Khemosabi (No4, R1) has been backed and beaten, but unlike many in that category, he's a horse with plenty of potential.

He finally finds a race that looks to suit perfectly and he hasn't missed a place in three starts at Te Rapa - his sole win was there - but whether he can manage a wet Te Rapa remains to be seen. Getting the first crack at the ground he may get away with it.

Certainly if you're in the camp that has backed him into favouritism lately, it would be unwise to drop him. Maybe a quinella with Masquerade (No11) and Carolina Bella (No15). Masquerade is going to love the step to 1600m and Carolina Bella's seventh on this track last start was a bit better than it looked, even though she was beaten favourite.

The army that backed Mangaroa Lad (No6, R2) into favouritism at Rotorua a couple of weeks ago got hammered, but they were unlucky. He was awkwardly away and came from last to be only one length from the winner in fourth place.

A clean getaway would have seen him winning and he can right that blot here. Being by Montjeu the conditions should be no problem for him.

It happens at this time every year - apprentice allowances become racing's most valuable commodity. Oriental Lad (No7, R3) is going to be a beneficiary of one today. With Alvin Ng taking 3kg out of the saddle, Oriental Lad is going to carry 1kg less than the minimum weight and although there are several other allowances in the race, his looks particularly significant.

He has been running sound races - his third two starts back was good - and he will seriously appreciate the conditions today. Ego (No4) is resuming, but has had the benefit of a barrier trial.

I'm sorry, but you have to say our off-peak open handicaps in recent times, with the odd exception, have been big yawns - mixtures of has-beens and try-hards.

And difficult to predict. Given that it pays to go for a bit of value, He's Heroic (No5, R4) might be that today. He's been competitive in better fields than this and is getting fitter with each start. He also has form in the wet.

Southerner O'Cartier (No2, R6) is best known as a firm-tracker, but you can't escape the fact that he's had eight starts on slow surfaces for four wins and two placings. Stats don't often lie. One of those wins was in this race last year when apprentice Rowena Smyth won on him and her claim took his weight down to 55kg.

Since then he has carried 57kg, 58kg and 59kg regularly - he lumped 62.5kg in one race - and this time Jenny Whiteside pulls 4kg off his 58kg and the 54kg will seem like a small Christmas hamper. This is not an easy race, but O'Cartier has to be seriously considered. And, yes, the track was slow when he won this race last year. Salvatore (No8) is probably the safest each-way bet and Pindy (No3) is the upsetter. Good race, but it's tough.

The course proper might be badly rain-affected, but the steeplechase course should be okay enough for Climbing High (No2, R7) in the big go.

He's genuine, he's safe and he's fit and when you put those together they're hard to head off. Black Eagle (No1) is brilliant and will give a dashing front-running display, but he missed a couple of years through unsoundness. Whether he's ready to match it with Climbing High's superior fitness is somewhat doubtful. If he is it's hard to see how they can beat him all winter.

Race 8 is a tough affair, but Lord Carson (No3) is a horse on the way through. He's had limited experience in wet ground but he's by Lord Ballina and they have mud for breakfast.

It's taken a while for Lord Carson to come solid, but there was an air of authority about his Te Rapa win last start. The 2kg claim will be vital. First Date (No5) is solid and will also appreciate a claim again.

Plenty of chances in Race 9 and Headsup (No9) is definitely one of them. Her form on good tracks has been terrific and she's better again when she strikes conditions like today. What beats her will win.

Wida's Dream (No7) is the best value in the race and Don Domingo (No4) and Loose Change (No2) are musts for multiple bettors, even though both are slightly unknown on this ground.

Prairie Star (No14, R10) got shuffled back the way the races were run at Tauranga last week and did well to finish fourth in the 3YO. She is a filly with ability and with that race to improve her she should be hard to contain today and could be at reasonable odds. The 3kg claim makes her even more appealing. Chatham Lilly (No13) could also be some value.