Racing: New Zealand Derby winner Rocket Spade poses puzzle for punters

Rocket Spade with co-trainer Andrew Scott. Photo / Photosport

Derby winner Rocket Spade poses punters one of racing's age-old questions when he lines up at Tauranga today. Doesn't the best horse in the race usually win?

That would seem the simplest question to ask going into the three-year-old event at Tauranga with Rocket Spade not only clearly the best horse in the race but maybe the best horse racing in New Zealand today.

He won the New Zealand Derby last start, and the Avondale Guineas and Auckland Guineas before that.

And yet, he opened a seemingly luxurious $2.10 in the first markets and has remarkably drifted to $2.20 even though none of his rivals would be considered to be in the same class.

That is not being harsh on them and second-favourite Tina Again has won two of three races, brilliantly last start and gets a 5kg advantage over Rocket Spade. But he is still rated 25 rating points superior to her.

So why doesn't the best colt in the country just hack around and win? Co-trainer Andrew Scott says it isn't quite that simple.

"This is an add-on race for him because the Sydney carnival is going back a week," explains Scott. "He needs the blow out but he is being trained for a Derby on a likely wet track at Randwick in two weeks.

"So we are training him for distance and racing him to settle and that means he is racing a bit dour, which is what we want for Derby trips.

"But what that also means is for a race like this on a faster track they could outsprint him. I think he will get back and if they sprint from the 600m they might get too much start on him if he is coming three or four wide."

If today's race was worth 10 times as much, Scott may instruct jockey Craig Grylls to stay handier and use Rocket Spade's class and stamina to outstay his mainly filly rivals. Under those circumstances you could raid the piggy bank and punt him until you had your fill.

But today's race is worth about one per cent of the main target Rocket Spade is being aimed at in a fortnight so his team won't be deviating from their training regime to try to win.

Rocket Spade should probably still win because he is class and the Auckland Guineas he won four starts ago was over today's 1600m. However, one rival might sneak away on him at a crucial stage, so consider the Win Insurance at $1.55 for Rocket Spade, meaning if he wins you get paid out at $1.55 and you get your money back if he finishes second.

Scott and training partner Lance O'Sullivan will take another high-class three-year-old to Tauranga but Force Of Will is going only for an exhibition gallop before heading to Sydney to contest next Saturday's Vinery Stakes.

She will be joined on Monday's plane by veteran iron horse Charles Road who is being aimed at the Sydney Cup, while Rocket Spade will travel over next week.

Already in Sydney and aiming at the same ATC Derby as Rocket Spade is Milford, who finished second to him in the Derby and contests the Rosehill Guineas today.

The Sydney track was improving yesterday after the March monsoon and Milford is well drawn in a decent but not scary field. He is still on an upward curve and learning his trade though and Rosehill is brutal on horses who lose concentration so today is a huge test for the Stephen Marsh youngster.