Racing: Mufhasa shows the value of short odds

Xanadu (No 6) beats Vincent Street (rails) and Knight's Tour in the Stella Artois 3YO Mile at Ellerslie on Saturday. Photo / Supplied

It has been a long road to get New Zealanders to accept the principle of backing horses at very short odds.

And it's still a long way from being achieved.

Take Mufhasa paying $1.80 in winning Saturday's $200,000 Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham.

His real price - and what he would have paid in Australia - was around $1.40.

In case that doesn't sound like a great deal of difference, it's actually a 100 per cent increase or decrease in profit on the bet.

With the odd exception, Australians are much sharper in their punting instincts than the average New Zealander.

When Aussie sprinting freak Black Caviar was a little more than halfway through her winning streak, Australians were clamouring to get on her at $1.15 and $1.10.

There wouldn't have been a Kiwi in sight.

Short prices are only short when they do not accurately reflect the actual chances of the horse.

Black Caviar had to fall over to be beaten in those races.

The $1.15 was a steal and the Aussies couldn't wait to get set.

Seeking value by comparing a horse's actual chances to the tote price on offer is smart betting.

There was perhaps an example in Despereaux winning the last race at Ellerslie on Saturday.

He had been unlucky when a close second at his previous start at Matamata, he had a 3kg claim through talented apprentice Alex Forbes, he had the perfect No 2 barrier to track the leaders from and the field was not particularly strong.

Plenty of positives.

Around $8-$9 would have been a fair price, even generous. He paid $17.70.

Congratulations to the Wellington Racing Club for reinstating the 3200m Chalmers to its programme on Saturday.

Are we now going to see the Wellington Cup revert back from 2400m to 3200m, where it should have stayed?

Let's hope so.

The WRC switched the distance for the wrong reasons.

The club wanted the race to stay at group one level and thought its best chance was a distance reduction.

That was never going to happen and now the WRC is stuck with its downgrade and a distance few want.

Suddenly the Australians have woken up to the fact that their desperation to breed early developing dashing sprinters has been taken too far.

Their resurgence at our thoroughbred sales in the past 18 months has been because they realise they can't produce a stayer and they want ours.

Isn't it remarkable that the greatest prize in Australian racing - and one of the finest in the world - is the Melbourne Cup, yet breeders fall over backwards to avoid breeding a stayer.

It's the same in England. The Coolmore team recently went to great lengths to convince everyone of the myth that our homebred So You Think was a metric miler and not a stayer - despite a Melbourne Cup placing - so as to have greater appeal when the stallion is retired to stud.

Yet the greatest prize in England - and in a Coolmore stallion roster - is the English Derby.

There is something magical about the top-end extreme distance staying races like the Melbourne Cup, not the least element of which is heritage.

There is one great truth - if you want to win a Melbourne Cup, and who doesn't, you have to run 3200m.

Very fast.

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Another star appeared at Ellerslie - 3-year-old Xanadu, who proved how important experience is when she got punters home at short odds in the Stella Artois 3YO Mile, but only after heart flutters that she might not for a good percentage of the home straight.

The inexperienced filly made an ugly job of wobbling around the home turn and it took her a while to balance up before beating Vincent Street and Knight's Tour.

Once she did she put paid to the others in the final 150m.

"That was actually easier than it probably looked," said rider Craig Grylls, who has ridden the Elusive City filly in all three of her wins.

"She's still learning, but she's very good."