Racing: Mufhasa on target

Mufhasa (Sam Spratt) wins the $1m Telegraph Handicap in January.

Trainer Stephen McKee is reasonably relaxed about the favourite Mufhasa in tomorrow's $225,000 Mudgway Partsworld Stakes at Hastings.

But probably not as happy as the punters who have flocked to the $2.50 odds available earlier this week.

If he could guarantee his own racing pattern scenario, McKee would probably be happy with $2.25 about the star of his stable.

But the way the first group one event of the season is possibly going to pan out concerns him.

He reasons:

* Mufhasa is best either trailing a horse in fourth place one out and one off the rails or outside the leader.

* The horse is not so good in front and the way the barrier draw could play out he may have to lead.

* What the camp cannot allow to happen at all costs, is for Mufhasa to cross to the rail from his mid-field draw, then be crossed himself, locking him away on the rail where his rivals would love to see him.

If Mufhasa has to lead he will, but the chances of him then handing up the position is slight.

"I'd prefer him not to be in front," said McKee bluntly. "He doesn't concentrate the same.

"He led in the Railway in January and ran around. He's better outside the leader and allowing whatever leads to set the tempo - then he doesn't have to worry about it.

"That allows him to target the leader in the home straight and then he concentrates and gets on with it."

With many leading chances drawn wide, the prospects of several of them coming across and putting pressure on the leaders after 200m is very high.

And where the major players settle at the end of the first 300m will have a big say in the finish of the race.

"I'm going to leave the whole thing up to Sam [Spratt], she knows the horse so well," says McKee.

McKee rates fellow northern Prince Kaapstad as the horse to beat.

"I've watched the replay of last year's Mudgway and his run was good.

"He's won the Easter, he's won the Guineas and he was second in the Derby, so he's a quality horse."

Local trainer Patrick Campbell has amended his prediction on the Hastings track.

Campbell raised some eyebrows when he declared the surface, heavy last Saturday, would be close enough to good.

He now believes the Hastings track might be too firm for some Mudgway runners.

"We've had some severe winds here for the last 36 hours," he said yesterday. "It's not only dried the track, it's created a false crust on the surface which will be very firm."

One runner that won't suit is Sarrera, a 9-year-old former Melbourne-based galloper having his first New Zealand start.

Sarrera has won $1,240,260 - the only horse in the field to have topped Mufhasa's earnings.

And if you think age has caught up with him, at his last start in Australia Sarrera was narrowly beaten in the A$500,000 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick by one of Australia's best, Pompeii Ruler.

Although the stable had been hoping for a rain-affected track - Sarrera's favourite - the horse is not being ruled out as a prospect.

"Yes, he'd have been suited by the rain, but he's a high class horse and he went well at the Te Teko trials," said Matamata trainer Paul Moroney.

Stablemate Altered Image won't mind a firm track.

"He looks like he's right back to his best," said Moroney.

"He improved from his first barrier trial at Te Teko, then won there the second time. We're very happy with him.

"He's an on-speed runner, therefore he's not going to be as disadvantaged as some by drawing wide and there should be decent speed in the race."

WISH LIST

* Mufhasa is $2.50 favourite and trainer Stephen McKee wants to see him sitting outside the leader.
* That's a reasonable chances, but not a given.
* McKee does not want to see Mufhasa lead.
* Prince Kaapstad is again poised to be a big danger.