Racing: Mufhasa a mystery in wet

Mufhasa, the horse that everything has gone right for all season, has suddenly struck unknown territory at Rosehill today.

Trainer Stephen McKee is uncertain how he will handle a Rosehill surface left heavy after a week of consistent rain in Sydney.

"I really don't know what he'll do on this track," said a disappointed McKee as he prepares for Mufhasa to tackle the group one A$400,000 ($488,000) George Ryder Stakes.

The 64mm of rain Rosehill has received up to yesterday morning had the track rated a heavy 9 with course manager Lindsay Murphy declaring plenty of sunshine would be required to bring the surface back to a heavy 8.

On a New Zealand surface with that reading you could expect on-pace runners like Mufhasa to be disadvantaged.

But that's not necessarily the way Rosehill will race, according to Sydney price assessor Phil Moyes of Betchoice.

"I'd say the leaders will get out to the centre of the track from the home turn as they tend to do when there's rain at Rosehill and perhaps the wider you get the better you may be, but the leaders won't necessarily be out of it.

"I don't think many will be able to come from the tail of the field and win, unless they've gone mad in front."

McKee said Mufhasa had trialled satisfactorily in in the wet before he raced "but of course that's different to group one racing".

"The one good point is that the track means it won't make it as difficult for him from the draw."

Mufhasa has drawn gate No 14 of the 15 runners and that may even be an advantage.

He doesn't like being boxed in and unlike most horses, doesn't mind sitting outside the leader, in fact, he quite likes it there.

From the outside he can afford to amble across and sit parked.

"Northern Meteor is an on-pace runner wearing blinkers for the first time, so there's a sure-fire leader we can sit outside," said McKee.

"It couldn't get much tougher, though - there's 11 group one winners in the field.

"And there's improvement in him for the Doncaster, but you'd still want to see a top run from him this time."

McKee said he expected stablemate Culminate to handle the footing in the A$400,000 Queen Of The Turf Stakes.

"She was big beating Eel Win on a heavy track at Otaki before she came over here, so I'm not too concerned about her."

If Mr Tipsy doesn't manage to win today's A$2.276 million BMW - and realistically that's going to be difficult - trainer Murray Baker will want an accurate read on the lengths the Cambridge stayer is beaten.

If it's less than eight lengths, you can confidently have an each-way bet on the horse in the upcoming A$700,000 Sydney Cup.

Mr Tipsy carries 58.5kg at weight-for-age today and in the Sydney Cup he faces easier handicap class horses with just 51kg on his back.

"He might be out of his league this time, but we'll get a line on him," said Baker yesterday.

Mr Tipsy finished second to Spin Around in the $1 million Auckland Cup last start, so there is no question over the Sydney Cup trip.

"He hasn't raced for a month so you'd expect him to improve with this run."

Baker is looking to maintain a good record when he lines up Harris Tweed in the A$150,000 Tulloch Stakes (2000m).

"I've won the Tulloch with Palliser and The Bill and Rios finished second in it last year."

Harris Tweed finished fourth in the NZ St Leger as the only 3-year-old in the field last start and will be guided by Hugh Bowman in his Australian debut.

There is a fair amount of confidence in the camp for a forward showing.

At home, Baker rates Material Girl an outside chance in the $200,000 NZ Bloodstock Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha.

"Don't forget she finished an unlucky fourth in a group three race at Manawatu last campaign and she's a much better horse now."

Which brings us back to Sydney assessor Phil Moyes and Melbourne mare Dane Julia in today's Breeders stakes at Te Aroha.

He was asked to consider the Dane Julia/Culminate form equation.

Culminate, narrowly beaten in this race last year, would have started close to equal favourite with talented filly Shanzero and her

second to Typhoon Tracy in her Australian debut provides a cross reference.

"I really rate Typhoon Tracy so on Culminate's effort to run second I'd say that if Dane Julia and Culminate were in a race together, I'd have Culminate $2 and Dane Julia $12."

Those equations work sometimes.

Sometimes not.