Racing: Mr Tipsy prime bet in Wellington Cup

Mr Tipsy. Photo / Dean Purcell

There's only one certainty on the punt this weekend - Mr Tipsy in today's $200,000 Century City Wellington Cup is the prime bet.

The reason he looks such a great bet is that it won't matter what the track conditions are.

He can handle it good like it was when he won the Manawatu Cup last start, but he's even better with some rain around, which was forecast for this morning.

Mr Tipsy is a quality stayer who has won nearly half a million dollars and gets in nicely on the handicap with 54kg. He was exempt from a re-handicap for the Manawatu Cup.

Three wins from four starts in heavy conditions tells you all you need to know about how he can manage an "off" track. Whatever beats him will win.

The actual track conditions will have a big bearing on who turns out to be the danger to Mr Tipsy. The extent of this morning's rain will be critical to that.

On a reasonable surface Showcause will be a threat. Even though the margins were tight, he was dominant in winning the New Zealand Cup and City Of Auckland Cup and according to trainer Frank Ritchie has improved since.

But significant rain would bleed away some of his opportunity.

Innocent Lady rates highly after her luckless fifth in the City Of Auckland Cup. Her earlier form had been first class and there are no concerns about a rain-affected track for her. He's Under The Gun and Fazza are at least multiple bet chances.

On a reasonable surface Orinda (No12, R1) is probably going to take some beating in the opener. She comes into this special conditions race as a maiden, but shouldn't be - she should have won at Ellerslie last start. She worked early from a wide gate, led, then trailed and was late getting into the clear before flashing home. Inside barriers are not normally great on rain-affected tracks, but at least she will get first use of the ground. Serapis Bay (No7) has similarly looked promising, clocking three minor placings from as many starts.

Zennista (No5, R3) has been waiting for rain-affected ground and should get it here. She dashed away with a stakes race on this track two starts ago the last time she struck moisture and subsequently found the firm track too much in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton. She has to take on the older horses here at R90, which is never easy, but she has a decent level of toughness. On a wet track she looks a very good each-way prospect.

Race 4 is very even and not a big punting race, but Regal Bay (No7) has done nothing wrong in all seven starts. He gets himself into the race and appears happy in all types of footing. There was a lot to admire about the way he got to the line when he won on the wet track on the middle day of the Ellerslie carnival two starts back. Goldmist (No4) ran the race of an improver when eighth at Manawatu when resuming last start. He is good in the wet. Forget Cordova Bay (No9) raced at Awapuni - he was caught wide throughout.

In the Desert Gold Stakes (Race5), you've got not only the variable of track conditions, you've got to work your way through the the merging of experienced fillies matching it with the emerging types. Shez Sinsational (No9) has beaten nothing of the class she faces here, but in two unbeaten performances she has done it exceptionally well and trainer Allan Sharrock makes no secret of the high rating he has of the filly. Smoulder (No1) and Blinding (No2) already have the scores on the board at this level.

Smoulder has form around the two best fillies, We Can Say It Now and King's Rose and is equally good on all types of tracks. Tough race. Perhaps Smoulder each way if she's around the $6 mark.

The Thorndon Mile is another that will be decided by the conditions. November Rain (No8, R6) has virtually no form in the wet, so the better the track the better her chances. She has a big finish on her that will be well suited to this track if she can get some footing.

The previous races will tip you into her chance. Obsession (No9), Dasoudi (No17) and The Meista (No7) are all chances and if he gets footing to suit him well, Ellerslie's Rich Hill Mile winner Fears Nothing (No11) is probably the one they all have to beat. He has a remarkable finish on him.

If Prairie Star (No8, R7) doesn't get back into the Wellington Cup field off the emergency list, she should win this race. Things went wrong for her in the Dunstan Final at Ellerslie and before that her two wins had a stamp of class about them. Roi D'Jeu (No5) is a danger.

The Douro Cup is always a great field and this year there are two exceptional young mares - Our Ella Belle (No7, R9) and Shantaine (11).

When Our Ella Belle steps to a middle distance watch out, but meantime the step from winning at 1400m last start to the 1600m here will help.

If there is one more scratching in the Thorndon Mile she will probably run in that instead. Shantaine was massive winning at Awapuni two starts back and covered too much extra ground when beaten at Tauranga last start. She is one of the best improving mares around.

The last is a nightmare race, but it took Shez Sinsational to run O'Reilly's Prize (No7) down last start, so she must rate pretty highly.

$200,000 Cup

* Opie Bosson has assured Murray and Bjorn Baker he will ride Mr Tipsy at the carded weight today despite battling with 55.5kg at Te Aroha races yesterday.

* Mr Tipsy has 54kg in the $200,000 Century City Wellington Cup, for which he is favourite.

* The TAB yesterday shortened Mr Tipsy in from $4.50 to $4.

* Second favourite at $7 is Showcause, who will need a decent track to produce his best, followed in the market by Innocent Lady at $9 and Veloce Bella at $12.