Racing: Mr Charlie promising for Mr McKee

Stephen McKee's main focus at Trentham today will be attempting to win the $1 million The Oaks Stud Telegraph with Mufhasa, but a safer bet might be his Mr Charlie.

Mr Charlie is a very promising stayer who has been runner-up in his last three, mainly against better opposition than he faces today.

Last start he failed by half a head to beat Seaflyte in the Dunstan Stayers Final at Ellerslie, an effort that would win him this race.

His near namesake Mr Charlie Brown (No3, R1) is a pretty good way to start the day, even in a race with a heap of chances. He looked good storming home out wide at Manawatu last start in a special conditions race and drops back to just maidens here. The step back from 1600m to 1400m today is probably not an assist, but the big Trentham track certainly is.

Southern Heights (No15) has drawn badly, but is a filly of quality and Cordova Bay (No1) will eventually get a win.

Not Tonite (No3, R2) was never going to win at Awapuni last start sitting three wide without cover then four and five wide. Mark Du Plessis rides this time and with a nice barrier should be more competitive. Brecon Heights (No4) is the key danger. He didn't get the best of runs at Awapuni.

The Grogoch (No3, R3) is smart on his day and had no luck at all when sixth at Stratford last start. He has drawn No 1 here and the experience of Michael Coleman is probably going to be important. Last start Dawn Ghost (No1) dashed past late to beat the talented Firebolt, who has subsequently won impressively. That's put her in the race and don't be surprised if Tap'N' Gap (No7) is running into it late.

For winning the Rich Hill Mile at Ellerslie La Etoile (No4, R5) has gone from 51kg to 54kg, but faces a slightly easier line-up. She is now very fit and won't be too inconvenienced if the footing is somewhat rain-affected.

The $70,000 Wellington Stakes is not an easy race to assess. Military Move (No1, R6) comes fresh off his second to Katie Lee in the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton, but is forward. We don't really yet know how good King Raedwald (No4) is and don't be surprised if Adulterer (No13) beats them all. She is still a maiden, but won't be for long. She is still learning, but is getting there quickly. Adulterer each way.

Rain is forecast through at least the first half of today, which would make Race 7, the Trentham Stakes, tricky. On firm footing, Red Ruler (No2) would be around $2.50, but he dislikes the wet. Stand Tall (No7) might be the go if it gets wet. He's had two races to get fit and can handle most of these on his day. Veloce Bella (No10) will be in it on a decent surface, but will struggle if it's wet.

If the track got quite bad the $1 million Telegraph, Race 9, could be a real trap race. If the track gets significantly downgraded look for a big market move to shorten Wall Street (No8). Rain will slow the speedsters and definitely assist those getting home hard, which is Wall Street all over. Gary Portelli says he's not too concerned for Railway winner A Gold Trail if it rains and it might be significant that one of the other Australians, Keano, has won in the heavy. Wealth Princess (No16) has won her only start when it was slow.

On a decent surface A Gold Trail each way makes sense and if it rains, well, it'll be tricky, but Wall Street and Wealth Princess might be best.

The last at Trentham is tough and will be tougher with a rain downgrade. Therefore go for value. Miss Kirsdel (No14) doesn't win out of turn, but she was closing off nicely late at Awapuni last start after little luck in running. She has drawn wide, but that might be an advantage if the track cuts up.

At Avondale, Nadege (No7, R4) looks decent. She is underrated and finished a close-up fifth - just 1.6 lengths away - from La Etoile in the Rich Hill Mile last start. In a much easier race she goes up to only 53kg from 51kg and her toughness will be difficult to repel.