Racing: Monkey King looks too good

The old Monkey King would have been beatable in tonight's $500,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup - the new one may not be.

That and a simple question regarding the start of the race may be all punters need to know to convince themselves to take the short odds on the superstar pacer tonight.

After three years of finding ways to get beaten in our biggest races Monkey King now finds ways not to, as he did in the New Zealand Cup, Miracle Mile and New Zealand Free-For-All.

His feature race record suffered a setback at Menangle last Sunday when he failed to out-grind Blacks A Fake in the Interdominion Final but that is a battle plenty of other great pacers have come out on the wrong side of before.

And if you want to look at the defeat in a glass half-full sense, had it not been for the greatest stayer in Interdominion history, Monkey King would have won the final and would be around $1.75 to win tonight.

So maybe Blacky has done punters a favour.

Exactly why Monkey King has waited until turning seven to reach his potential is anybody's guess but he has been the best overall pacer in Australasia this season.

Not only has he added toughness to his trademark sprint but has developed gate speed, perhaps the most potent addition to his arsenal.

Which brings us to the one real question punters need to ask themselves before they unload the serious money on the Monkey tonight.

Is Monkey King fast enough to be the first of the favourites to the marker pegs tonight?

If you think the answer is yes, you have your cup winner.

Monkey will start from barrier three and after showing improved gate speed during the Interdoms he has a good chance of pressing forward and finding the front before arch-rivals Bondy and Changeover.

Once there, driver Ricky May would have the option of controlling the race, which if he races up to his best form makes him a certainty.

If he is beaten at the start by Bondy, who can fly the gate, Monkey King still only has to get past those inside them to assume the trail behind Bondy, who would be extremely unlikely to hand up the pacemaking role.

Again, that scenario suggests Monkey King would win.

Winning in either of those scenarios, of course, depends on Monkey King being at his best, over which there were doubts this week.

However, trainer Brendon Hill is much happier with him now and while he has had a tough Interdominion series, so, too, have tonight's other favourites Bondy and Changeover.

Which brings us back to the one simple, over-riding fact of tonight's cup: Monkey King is the best horse in the race with the best draw. So he should win.

Bondy looms as a realistic danger even though his camp have concerns over him handling the right-handed track because he could be an uncontested leader.

He has broken enough hearts in front to suggest he may not cop vicious mid-race pressure and if any horse in this field has been racing well enough in the last month to beat Monkey King it is Bondy.

Changeover's headline-grabbing race career could end tonight and after a strong fourth in the Interdom Final he might have one more big performance left in him.

Had he drawn inside the other two favourites off the front you could easily make a case for him winning tonight. But drawn to cover more ground than them he deserves to be around the $7 mark.

Bettor's Strike would be the biggest winner from any unlikely early war, while Baileys Dream will be the overs in the race after a luckless Interdominions.

AUCKLAND CUP
* Monkey King deserves favouritism for tonight's $500,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup.
* He has been clearly the best New Zealand pacer all season.
* He has developed the gate speed to use barrier three tonight.
* Tonight's meeting is the biggest night of the racing year.

GUERIN'S TIPS
* Monkey King
* Bondy
* Changeover