Racing: Mighty Matt gets chance at Ellerslie

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Mighty Matt couldn't get over the line first at the Riccarton carnival, but he might have better luck in Race 3 at Ellerslie today.

The Awapuni visitor went a couple of nice races in the south for a fifth and a third, essentially in better overall company than he faces today.

Mike Breslin has given the handy sprinter time to freshen and that should be one of the keys to this afternoon's race.

We predicted Queens Rose, as usual, might be difficult to beat when fresh last time she raced and she duly got the money. Interestingly, she has had two career second-up runs for zip, so a touch of caution may be required this time. With the benefit of an apprentice allowance, Guevara can get into this finish.

Tiger Moss (No2, R2) was a costly beaten favourite on this track on September 6. The track conditions may have played a part in this and she is well worth another look today.

You just had to admire the way Avisto (No1, R6) hit the line hard to win at Wanganui last start, somewhat similar to her stakes-winning run at Ellerslie before she spelled. She can seemingly handle winter tracks and the 1400m this time will be no problem. She will be a deserved favourite.

Watch for a big run from Vavasour (No7). She has been backed and beaten, but she gives the impression she is needing more distance each time. What didn't help last time at Ruakaka was a slick track on which Volkstok'n'barrell ran a 1.25.84 1400m. They won't be running anything like that time for 1400m today and that is going to help Vavasour - provided she can get through the tough footing. Avisto deserves to be favourite, but stay with Vavasour, she's not far off a decent win. Way In (No2) had no luck last time.

The $70,000 Bonecrusher Stakes could be a trap race.

Volkstok'n'barrell (No4, R7) is going to start favourite, but there is entitled to be at least a slight question mark over him in the more testing conditions than he struck at Ruakaka last start.

He tore along in front that day and won with a lot of authority. But his galloping action suggests he might not be quite as fluent in choppy ground, and this is Race 7.

He is very talented though and you can't take too many risks with him. Practically the entire field has chances and you had to like the way Twya (No2) came back to win after looking beaten at Wanganui last start.

Joey Jonz (No5, R8) deserves to win today. Two starts back he finished fourth in a strong Taranaki field behind the talented The Bouncer and last time out he fought to the death to just go under to Dragonkeeper.

He gets another 3kg apprentice claim and what beats him should win.

Secrets Only (No3) should be the improver.

Moochi Me (No5, R9) won her debut race like a horse who was going to win five straight.

However nothing went right for her next time out at Ruakaka and at Te Rapa last time she did remarkably well for a close second after starting from the outside barrier and covering ground.

There are a few chances in this last race, but Moochi Me looks a good each way prospect.

The distance will still be too short for Kirramosa in today's A$175,000 Shannon Stakes in Sydney, but keep an eye on the former New Zealand mare.

Trainer John Sargent has the Oaks-winning mare from last season right where he needs her heading into the major spring staying assignments in Melbourne. Her two runs have been tidy and look out when she steps out over further than today's 1500m. Rock Sturdy is going to take beating in her race today.

Another former New Zealander Neena Rock looked huge coming from last into third behind Catkins when both mares resumed in Sydney last start. Remarkably, she got only 2kg from Catkins in that race and gets only the same again. That makes it impossible to beat Catkins, who will go around at $1.40.