Racing: Melody Belle can start punters' day with a smile

Melody Belle has to lump 57kg topweight, but she is a class act.

A year ago today Melody Belle put long faces on punters when she upset the favourites to pay $32.40 winning the $1m Karaka Million.

Those grumbles will turn to massive smiles if the talented mare can start this evening's six-race card off with victory in the $70,000 Mongolian Khan Trophy. After last year's shocker, you could say she has an obligation.

From No 2 at the 1200m barrier she will get her chance. She went out joint favourite in the Railway on New Year's Day and although only sixth, it was a much better run than it sounds.

On a day when the fields were racing away from the rail because of the rain, Melody Belle was taken on in the lead, but still had enough to look a winning hope at the 300m, but she was attacked from both sides and she came off worse than the others in a four-horse scuffle over the final stages.

She has to lump 57kg topweight, but is a class act - don't forget what she did destroying the Australian 2-year-olds at the Queensland carnival last winter.

Plenty of opposition. Gift Of Power was magnificent winning her fourth on end at Trentham last week but she has to overcome a seven-day back-up to put another score on the board. In her favour is that when mares are in form they stay in form for long periods. Her No 10 barrier looks ugly and her only option looks to be coming across the face of the field early, which she has ample early speed to achieve.

Merlini is a star in the making, if still green around the edges yet. He got away with it to score nicely at Trentham last start, but wouldn't want to be making any mistakes in this line-up. His Wellington win was against maidens and one-win horses and Melody Belle is dropping back from a Railway. Ladynadel, Astor and Bombard are necessary considerations for the back-end of trifecta and first four players.

• The overall paper form of Coldplay before her Rich Hill Stud victory on January 1 looks ordinary in the extreme, but her last start effort is the only run you need to consider when summing up her chances in today's $100,000 Westbury Classic (race 5).

In a grind up the home straight in extremely testing conditions the talented mare kept finding to hold onto a narrow victory in the Rich Hill. The job the Baker/Forsman stable has had since that testing run has been to freshen Coldplay for today's 1400m following a tough 1600m. It is not always easy to come back in distance, but the Cambridge stable's record is such you'd take the risk of them being successful. The training partners have the same job to do with Lizzie L'Amour, although in her case it's coming back from 2000m to 1400m. That is even more difficult. She is classy though and the weight conditions of this race provide her with her opportunity. The mystery horse is Thee Auld Floozie. This time last year she won the Thorndon Mile, backed up with victory in this race and was then beaten just a head in the Group 1 Breeders Stakes at Te Rapa. Her paper form this preparation is -8907, but her record at this distance - nine starts for four wins and two seconds, makes her difficult to ignore and the fact Hugh Bowman is aboard is another plus. Her last start was a 1200m preparatory effort to have her ready for today. Include her in all bets.

Livin' On A Prayer's form is remarkable. The improvement she has shown makes her a player here, even though under the weight conditions, this is a fairly large step up in grade.