KEY POINTS:
Drop backs in class are worth noting at this time of year.
Melanion takes one in Race 9 at Ellerslie today and it should see him take plenty of beating in the penultimate event.
In two starts in open company at the Ellerslie meeting in late May and early June, Melanion twice finished not much more than two lengths off classy staying mare Twinkling.
Today he drops back to a Rating 92 event and although significantly up in weight, jockey Craig Grylls will take a 1kg allowance out with him.
The previous two track ratings were dead and Melanion will much prefer today's tougher, wetter conditions.
Cambridge trainer Ralph Manning could be in for a good day.
He produces two of the strongest chances in Race 5, Magnetism (No1) and Daraldo (No5).
Magnetism is likely to go out favourite, but Daraldo, with a 3.5kg weight concession and a preference for wet footing, could be difficult to manage.
He was not at his best on the better footing at Trentham when beaten favourite last Saturday.
Whistleman (No1, R7) could give Manning a decent result.
He was checked early at Ellerslie last start then came down the inside where the footing was probably a touch worse than out wide.
This time Jayne Ivil takes 3kg off Whistleman's 57.5kg topweight, which will be an enormous assistance.
Lazaros (No2) and Dead Common (No3) are probably on the verge of their best form.
Both are value trifecta chances.
Montjee (No1, R1) didn't figure as expected at Te Teko last start after a good run at Paeroa, but didn't get the breaks either.
His Paeroa effort earns him another chance here.
Rat Tat (No2, R3) was one of those beaten favourites at Trentham last Saturday where the track was a little too good to really suit the winter horses.
Rat Tat has much better form on the type of ground he'll strike today and he's a three-time winner at Ellerslie.
With Corey Parish taking 2kg off his back he should be very competitive today.
He will carry 53kg here compared to 58kg last week.
The run of the race did not suit Star Of Rio (No3) at Te Rapa last Saturday.
King Cambo's (No4, R4) two efforts since winning in dramatic style on debut have been a touch less than expected, but they haven't been shockers.
If he managed his first real winter track okay he should prove difficult this afternoon.
Beau Casual (No13) is an awful lot better than her form reads on paper.
A shower today to loosen the footing would be a big help to her.
In a very open field Vicenzo (No8), Fast Fit (No7) and Dan Ho (No5) are all live hopes.
Stand Tall (No2, R8) did remarkably well to finish a close third after missing the start last week.
A clean beginning looks to be the only thing he needs here.
In what looks to be a so-so field, Red Bunting (No1, R10) could be a bit of value in the last. Two runs this time back should have him close to fitness.
