KEY POINTS:
Big winner Alamosa looked as though he was going to be too good for the opposition facing him tomorrow, but the prospect of an "off" track has put a question mark over that.
Rider Gavin McKeon is, as usual, putting a positive spin on the scenario.
The only filly in the race, Run Roxy Run, is one of the runners who should not be troubled by the expected conditions.
Punters might be concerned about a rain-affected track for Alamosa in tomorrow's $100,000 H S Dyke Avondale Guineas, but rider Gavin McKeon is blocking it out of his mind.
McKeon is concentrating on one factor - Alamosa's great class.
"He's the best horse in the race and that's what I'll be concentrating on," said McKeon yesterday.
It's a justifiable thought.
In four starts this season, Alamosa has brilliantly won a sprint against the older horses carrying 58kg, won the Hawkes Bay Guineas, been beaten a nose by Rios in the Wellington Guineas and gone under by a head to The Pooka in the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton.
The nine rivals he faces this time are all emerging horses who can boast nothing like the same form.
On a decent surface Alamosa would be close to a $1.50 chance - because of the rain mid-week and the changed conditions, he is likely to start at significantly longer odds.
In August last year, Alamosa won two barrier trials on slow and heavy conditions before racing.
On debut he was narrowly beaten on a slow track at Wanganui and all his subsequent racing has been on reasonable surfaces.
The fact he handled the wet early may not be significant because most early 2-year-olds run almost exclusively on sheer ability and it is not until later that they seem to show a preference for certain conditions.
"I think he'll handle the track conditions, provided they don't get too bad, I don't have too many queries," said McKeon. The stakemoney levels of the runners underlines Alamosa's dominance - his $324,250 is nearly 10 times that of the next biggest winner in Mallinson Road.
"If he fails to handle the track, he fails to handle it - it'll be a learning curve for all of us," said McKeon.
Run Roxy Run, Mission Control and Six O'Clock News are all rapidly emerging types and Mallinson Road and Prince Kaapstad are talented so there is scope if the favourite topples.
The Moroney stable is less than delighted about the likelihood of a rain-affected track for Mission Control. "He trialled on a slow surface at Paeroa as a 2-year-old and finished second, but it was a distant second and he wasn't that happy," said Paul Moroney.
"He's a horse with a bit of class that has been very green. We've had to blinker him to bring him along and he's our Derby horse in the autumn.
"Alamosa is a class act and will probably be too sharp for our bloke over the 1600m, but ours has come on a fair bit."
Run Roxy Run impressed when she kept the favourite Mufhasa at bay in a tough finish at Taurangalast start.
That was an improvement on her previous race and trainer Frank Ritchie believes she has taken another step forward with that race.
"I'm delighted with her. I believe she's improved since Tauranga and not just physically, professionally too."
The prospect of a track close to soft doesn't greatly concern Ritchie.
"I know they ran 1.11.59 for the 1200m when she won her maiden at Pukekohe, but they were getting well into the track that day.
"She used to pull in the middle stages of a race, but she's getting more professional about that and my only concern would be if there is not a decent pace set in this race, but I imagine there will be."
One who is definitely worried about the conditions is Six O'Clock News' co-trainer Paddy Busuttin.
Six O'Clock News has won the past two of his four race starts on a decent track and his two previous outings tell a story.
"Both those runs were on slow tracks and he didn't like them at all.
"He'll be highly competitive if the conditions are reasonable, but if they tended towards being quite bad he won't cope well."
* The Avondale course manager did a track reading yesterday morning and it came up as 2.6, perhaps another indication that readings can come up better than the actual conditions and perhaps also an indication that rain on a dry summer track does not have quite the same affect it has in winter when the ground is often already saturated.
Avondale is fortunate that the heavy rain predicted for Auckland on Wednesday did not fall until 10 or so minutes after the running of the final race, the Concorde.
The rain through the day had been steady, but not heavy and the effect it had on the track was of minor significance compared with what it might have been if the last two races had been run after the heavy rain fell.
