Peter McKenzie starts today's Brisbane Cup A$27,500 ($32,500) behind square, but that hasn't dented the New Zealander's confidence.
McKenzie's runners, Empyreal (for whom he paid a A$27,500 late-entry fee) and 3-year-old Sculptor are in Queensland's richest staying race right up to their ears on what is expected to be a slow track.
Saturday's drought-ending rain had the Eagle Farm surface slow yesterday and experts were predicting it to be in that range today despite clearing weather and significant wind in Brisbane yesterday.
It is just what McKenzie has been hoping for.
Empyreal essentially forced McKenzie's hand on the Cup late entry fee when he finished fourth behind Sydney Cup winner Mahtoum in the O'Shea Stakes at Eagle Farm two weeks ago.
Before declaring Sculptor a certain Cup starter, McKenzie had been waiting to see how the horse fared in Saturday's A$500,000 Queensland Derby.
With decent luck Sculptor would just about have won the Derby.
He was axed at the start, was five and six wide down the back straight before Chris Johnson moved him forward to sit three wide outside the leaders at the 600m.
Remarkably, Sculptor kept going strongly to hit the front at the 275m, but the effort had to tell and he was cut back to fourth.
One of McKenzie's best mates is a Brisbane form analyst.
"He called me after the race and said if Sculptor had received the run which winner [Ice Chariot] got, he'd have won by five lengths.
"That might be stretching it a bit, but he'd have gone close to winning."
McKenzie has always felt Sculptor is underrated and is delighted the horse appears to have taken no harm from the Derby, although he concedes that will be confirmed only by the zest the horse has in the final stages of today's tough 3200m.
"He lost only 2kg from the race and he'll put that back on this afternoon."
McKenzie is flying in two New Zealand jockeys for the pair. David Walsh rides Empyreal and Lisa Allpress is on Sculptor.
Empyreal carried 58kg at weight-for-age in the O'Shea Stakes and drops to 52.5kg while the O'Shea winner, Mahtoum, drops only 2kg.
Sculptor has just 49kg, but McKenzie knows it is a big ask for a horse to back up from a Derby into a 3200m cup two days later.
"I won't run him again up here, he can have a rest."
He is delighted with Empyreal's progress. "He's right on top of his game."
McKenzie sees O'Shea runner-up Art Success as the danger, a scenario that does not sit well with the New Zealand TAB.
When the agency first opened its markets it had Art Success at $25 and a group of punters grabbed the odds to win $125,000.
Overall, New Zealand runners hold a strong grip on the race.
Gorgeous George's trainer, Frank Ritchie, fears the McKenzie pair as much as any of his rivals.
"I thought Empyreal went a terrific race in the O'Shea Stakes on a track that was clearly firmer than he prefers," said Ritchie.
"If the track comes up slow as some are predicting then Empyreal and Sculptor are going to be difficult to manage."
The track predictions are exactly what Ritchie feared after months of drought in Brisbane - Gorgeous George has wet track form but only in the lower grades and his best form has been on a firm track.
He showed that when he led them up in the O'Shea Stakes and fought on strongly for third carrying 7kg more than the 51kg he has today.
"I know he's improved since then, but I'm worried about the track conditions. I'm not so concerned about the footing as such, but more about whether the fence will hold up or not."
Grant Cooksley rides Bazelle and Lisa Cropp has flown over to ride Australian-trained Holidazzle.
Latest betting: Art Success was a $4.50 favourite in Australia yesterday, ahead of Desert Master $5, Mahtoum $6 and Reggie $7. Gorgeous George was $12, ahead of Pentathon $15 and Bazelle and Empyreal at $17. Holidazzle was rated $35 and Sculptor and Sir Coup $51.
Racing: McKenzie pair must earn $32,500 for starters
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