The Tidy Express showed the fitness benefit of three earlier starts when she came second to Vavasour in the Waikato Cup.
She has good form on wet tracks.
Farm Boy's 60kg looks tough, but he has as much talent as any here and needs respect.
Horses on the card that have winning form on slow and heavy conditions:
Race 1: None. Pacorus has good placed form.
Race 2: None. Torba, Chadsdale, Master Wong, Diamond Duchess have placed form.
Race 3: 2-year-old and no experience in the wet.
Race 4: Bergerac, Bee Tee Junior, Ana, Call Me Royal, Castle Bee. Red Sunset has placed form.
Race 5: Dragon Dancer, Gravano, Get That Jive, Brighton, Sultan Of Swing. Scrutinize has not raced on slow or heavy, but is unbeaten in three starts on a dead surface. Dukedom is placed on slow.
Race 6: Peach Bellini, Sofia Rosa, Valley Girl, Cool Tart all have good form on dead tracks.
Race 7: Farm Boy, Celebrity Miss, Decorah, Surpass, The Tidy Express, Mister Impatience, El Soldado, Storming The Tower. Salford Art and Rose of Virginia have placed form.
Race 8: Silverdale, El Pescado, Consensus, To Be Sure, Victor Hugo.
Tavy has not raced on them, but has three wins on dead tracks.
Race 9: Sacred Star, Allez Eagle, Durham Town, Natuzzi, Statham, Whosyourmaster, Caellum, Fascination Street, Trepidation, Irish Moon.
An example here why stats can be confusing. Durham Town has a win in the slow and doesn't like it, Ryan Mark doesn't, but does like it wet.
Race 10: So It Goes, Prince Of Passion, Ryker, Shillelagh, Maestro Tom, Dalezinga, Jewel Of The Naki. Nothing Trivial has placed in the wet as has Nomisma.
Ellerslie tips
Each way: Snow Secret, R4 Ellerslie: Has the No 1 barrier to get a good passage in a tough race. Won't mind a bit of rain.
Class: Scrutinize, R5 Ellerslie. Yet to strike a slow or heavy track, but three unbeaten runs on dead tracks suggest he might be hard to handle.
Well placed if wet: Ryan Mark, R9 Ellerslie. They've prayed for rain and it looks like the prayers are answered.