If you look at the $130,000 Thorndon Mile trifecta at Trentham today, the mares Platonic and Giovana hold the key.
The Thorndon is a tough race - the speed will be on and both Platonic and Giovana have the ability to finish their races off strongly.
Whoever wins the Thorndon will have to hit the finish line hard.
Platonic did just the opposite in the Highview Stud Trophy at Ellerslie last start when Leith Innes had to pull her up in the closing stages to prevent her becoming a permanent part of the outside running rail.
That is unlikely to happen again, even though Wellington Cup day partygoers inside the running rail will do their best to make enough noise in the closing stages of every race to make that possible.
For a mare furnishing an impressive record, Giovana remains slightly underrated.
We all know Zonda's sprint was hampered by the damp track winning the weight-for-age race on the last day of the Ellerslie carnival, but so was Giovana's and only a neck separated the pair. She is dropping back from 2000m to 1600m, hardly ideal, but is the type who can handle that type of assignment, probably better than Zonda, topweight for this race.
As much as trainer Roger James says Zonda will surprise even him if he wins under 59kg over 1600m, it is a huge risk to leave him out of the trifecta. The sprint he turned on to win the 1600m Kings Plate on Boxing Day at Ellerslie was the best we've seen in a season or two and the fast pace of today's race will give him every opportunity to do the same late in the race. Don't leave him out.
There are plenty of other trifecta chances and Country Rose and Furnish are among the top end of them.
The Auckland Cup quinella of Our Unicorn (No1, R8) and Ebony Honor (No10) are the trumps in the $270,000 Lion Brown Wellington Cup.
There has been a tendency to underrate Our Unicorn's Westbury Auckland Cup win because his Australian form for a long time had been awful.
But there is overwhelming evidence trainer Alan Jones has turned him around mentally since taking over his training. The simple fact is, when he's in form Our Unicorn is one of the best stayers in Australasia and there are not too many in today's field who can lay claims even close to that. Okay, 57kg is not easy over 3200m, but Our Unicorn is a big-framed horse and, even more important, his beautifully relaxed nature will allow him to carry his big weight even better. Ebony Honor is sitting in a good spot - Auckland Cup second placegetters have an enormous Wellington Cup winning record in the last decade and the McKee stable is delighted with the way he has trained on since Ellerslie.
Smiling Like (No8), Starina (No14, Armstrong (No9) and Kaapeon (No2) are right in with trifecta chances.
Perhaps the best bet of the day is Spottswoode (No9, R7). She has been racing like a horse looking for a middle distance, which she gets here for the first time this campaign. She finished off nicely in last week's Anniversary Handicap to be only sixth, only 1 1/4 lengths from winner Andrella, not being quite sharp enough at the end of the 1600m. Apply that same finish to 2000m and it should result in her going close today.
Raysin Hope (No6) is the danger. He flopped badly at Ellerslie on Boxing Day, but as a big, upstanding long-striding type he had trouble with the dead track. Take no notice of that effort, his previous form was excellent and he poses a real threat.
Bohemian Blues (No3, R2) looks a sound prospect. She was run down at Te Rapa last start, but found the 1400m a fraction too far and back to 1200m this time, in a field which lacks stars, she will be harder to pull back.
Northerner Jane Susan (No8, R4) was narrowly beaten into third in a stronger field on the first day of the meeting and as a reasonably promising stayer rates highly in this. Watch for a better run from Leagues (No1), who is better than his first day run suggests.
Wattenbach (No3, R5) has only to repeat his effort here to win on Monday to make it a double for the meeting. The finishing sprint he produced was stylish and if in-form Mark Du Plessis can find him a similar cosy trip, it should be all he needs. Trafalgar Flyer (No6) is starting to look useful and if there is a roughie for the trifecta it could be Touchstone Lad (No9).
Kensington Flyer (No8, R9) was caught wide in the Anniversary Handicap on the first day and although ninth, was only a couple of lengths from the winner Andrella. That effort is enough to win this race and the opposition is not as strong. Forlorna (No10) finishes her races off well, making her ideal for this.
Racing: Mares key to trifecta in tough Thorndon Mile
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.