KEY POINTS:
It might seem unusual to have a maiden as favourite for the group one $175,000 Ford Manawatu Sires' Produce, but Pierre Joseph has the right credentials.
Trainer Stephen McKee certainly thinks so after a luckless fourth in the Ford Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie last start.
The beautifully bred Pierre Joseph is essentially a 3-year-old type trying to be a 2-year-old.
He has made it difficult for himself by getting back in his three starts, but last start it was not his own fault.
"For a change he jumped quite quickly, then got chopped back to last, which made his job pretty tough," says McKee.
And that wasn't the end of it - twice in the home straight Pierre Joseph and Lisa Cropp had to change ground to avoid runners when they were finishing fast.
"Lisa thought he would have just about won with a clear run and I think he would have too."
The No 1 barrier draw generally looks impressive in juvenile races, but in Pierre Joseph's case it is not necessarily in his favour - the danger of being carted back along the rail is real.
Luck will play a vital part in where he settles in running.
"Over 1200m he hasn't quite got the early tactical speed to clear the rubbish, but over 1400m it's a little different. We'll let the early speed go, there's no point in hunting him out because he probably wouldn't finish off as well.
"It'll be a matter of trying to work him into a spot after they've gone a bit of a distance. And if it rains the field might open up."
McKee said he is delighted with Pierre Joseph's training. "On Tuesday morning he worked as well as a 2-year-old can work."
But a rain-affected track would concern the Ardmore trainer.
McKee's private training facility has only a sand and a plough track so Pierre Joseph has not been tried on an 'off' track even in training.
"He's a big-actioned horse, so I'd be surprised if he'd like it if the track got bad."
Pierre Joseph will be spelled immediately regardless of where he finishes.
"He's looking to be a 3-year-old and run 1600, so the sooner we turn him out the sooner we can get him back."
El Cuento and Satinka were luckless in finishing second and third to Alamosa in the Diamond Stakes at Manawatu.
"Vinny (Colgan) said she wanted to run away from the other horses when she sat parked at Ellerslie," said Satinka's trainer Lance O'Sullivan.
"That made El Cuento's effort pretty good because he had to sit outside us again."
O'Sullivan is happy with Satinka, but says he does not know how she would manage if there was rain on the day. There was no rain in Palmerston North yesterday afternoon and the track was quite firm, but rain is forecast.
Jim Collett says he's not sure what a wet track would mean to the chances of El Cuento, but he's not devastated at the prospect.
El Cuento showed he was right up with the best juveniles when he won the colts and geldings race on Breeders Stakes day at Matamata then backed up with a half-length second to Alamosa in the Ford Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie after sitting on the speed three deep without cover.
"He made his debut at Manawatu, finishing second and was promoted. The track was officially dead that day, but I rated it closer to slow and he handled it."
Collett said El Cuento was only 80 per cent fit at Matamata and had him a lot closer to perfect for his big run Ellerslie and has him in the same shape this week.
In a wide open race, recently gelded The Pooka and Alamosa have to be respected. Alamosa had a lot of favours with the inside barrier in winning the Diamond Stakes and has drawn out at No 13 this time.
Sires' produce
* The group one event has drawn a field that throws up six or seven strong winning chances.
* The added complication is that rain is forecast.
* Luckless juvenile Pierre Joseph will be trying to shed his maiden status at racing's highest level.
* Trainer Stephen McKee says the colt's trackwork has been "fabulous."
