Don't kid yourself there is a standout in today's $250,000 Kelt Capital Stakes at Hastings.
It is one of the most open features you will see all season and luck in running will be the decider.
Which is why the favourite should be paying $5.
And why Integrate needs to race a bit handier than she has in her two races so far this preparation, not only to guarantee missing some of the backwash if things get dodgy in a tight race, but to ensure she is not left flat-footed wth too much ground to make up if the race develops into a sit-and-sprint.
Opie Bosson should be able to sit Integrate closer to the speed. The tempo will be a bit more relaxed over the 2040m than the 1400m and 1600m Hastings features in which she was required to make up a huge amount of distance from the back of the field.
If there is one certainty about this race it is that The Message will not again get away with the soft lead that won him the Hawkes Bay Challenge Stakes here last start. He can still prove difficult to catch though - you cannot emphasise enough that he is probably in the best form of his career. Cinder Bella and Aerosmith are dangerous. Neither has enjoyed luck this campaign and can be right in the trifecta.
Our Mr Bowie (No 7, R9) will be difficult to keep out in his fresh-up appearance and another fresh runner in Kaapeon (No 11) might be the one to test him. Our Mr Bowie has looked very good at times and should be in for the best campaign of his career as a 5-year-old this season. Kaapeon showed he was ready to do something wth a nice Wanganui trials win.
The step up to 2000m will be a huge boost for the chances of No Alimony (No 2, R7). She has turned in a couple of impressive finishes over distances way short of her best in the two starts she has had this campaign and her staying powers will be brought into play today.
Lord Presto (No 13, R3) had no luck at all when beaten into second at Hastings last start. He was three and four wide throughout from a wide gate and did remarkably well to stick on in the closing stages to take the runner-up's cheque. He has drawn much better at No 2 today and should be very competitive.
Similarly, the barrier draw should also help Kings Honor (No 11, R4). He always looked as if he would make a smart 3-year-old and his first-up seventh in the Hawkes Bay Guineas held a lot of merit. He should find this easier. My Happiness (No 1) has risen in the weights after her two impressive recent wins, but should still be competitive.
St Petrus (No 4, R5) will be greatly improved for his first-up 1600m at Te Rapa and stepping back up to a middle distance should see him go close to getting the money again. He was much improved last campaign and there is no reason to believe he cannot continue that progress.
Willie Capone (No 1, R6) has been given time to recover from his gut-busting first-up winning effort a month ago and that may be the key to this race. Despite his brilliant speed, he won't have it easy from the outside of the 12 barriers, but his class will carry him a long way. It might pay to throw Schmooze (No 6) and Royston (No 2) into your TAB trebles and trifectas.
At Matamata, Trephina (No 9, R2) was an impressive trials winner at Taupo and can make a winning debut on her home track. The Last Tycoon filly might be pretty smart.
Napoleon (No 5, R6) made a fair impression in three starts last season and is the type to produce a big fresh-up run on his home track today. He finishes his races off well and in this field that might be important.
Look for a better run from Des's Dream (No 2, R7) today. He will be fitter for his two races so far, in which he has not enjoyed the best of luck.
Lyn's Legacy (No 5, R9) has no easy task under 57kg fresh from a break, but is the type to produce something straight from a spell. She is better than useful.
Racing: Luck in running should decide Kelt Capital
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